Despite development of new technologies for caries control, tooth decay in primary teeth remains a major global health problem. Caries risk assessment (CRA) models for toddlers and preschoolers are rare. Among them, almost all models use dental factors (e.g., past caries experience) to predict future caries risk, with limited clinical/community applicability owing to relatively uncommon dental visits compared to frequent medical visits during the first year of life. The objective of this study was to construct and evaluate risk prediction models using information easily accessible to medical practitioners to forecast caries at 2 and 3 y of age. Data were obtained from the Growing Up in Singapore Towards Healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) mother-offspring cohort. Caries was diagnosed using modified International Caries Detection and Assessment System criteria. Risk prediction models were constructed using multivariable logistic regression coupled with receiver operating characteristic analyses. Imputation was performed using multiple imputation by chained equations to assess effect of missing data. Caries rates at ages 2 y ( n = 535) and 3 y ( n = 721) were 17.8% and 42.9%, respectively. Risk prediction models predicting overall caries risk at 2 and 3 y demonstrated area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval) of 0.81 (0.75–0.87) and 0.79 (0.74–0.84), respectively, while those predicting moderate to extensive lesions showed 0.91 (0.85–0.97) and 0.79 (0.73–0.85), respectively. Postimputation results showed reduced AUC of 0.75 (0.74–0.81) and 0.71 (0.67–0.75) at years 2 and 3, respectively, for overall caries risk, while AUC was 0.84 (0.76–0.92) and 0.75 (0.70–0.80), respectively, for moderate to extensive caries. Addition of anterior caries significantly increased AUC in all year 3 models with or without imputation (all P < 0.05). Significant predictors/protectors were identified, including ethnicity, prenatal tobacco smoke exposure, history of allergies before 12 mo, history of chronic maternal illness, maternal brushing frequency, childbearing age, and so on. Integrating oral-general health care using medical CRA models may be promising in screening caries-susceptible infants/toddlers, especially when medical professionals are trained to “lift the lip” to identify anterior caries lesions.
Background Ageing population is a major health care problem all over the world. In Singapore, as of 2020, senior citizen (65 years and above) consists of 15.2 % of total population. By 2030, one in five Singaporeans will be more than 65 years old. Thus, nursing home (NH) is an important pillar of a health care system. Nursing home staff are in the front line to manage common infections. However, the inexperience and the lack of guidance have led to inappropriate transfer to acute hospitals. Infectious Diseases Community Program (IDCP) is the project to enhance partnerships with NHs. We work with NHs to develop, adapt, and implement appropriate processes related to infection control, prevention, and management. One of our objectives is the enhancement of assessment and appropriate evaluation of fever. The aim is to reduce the inappropriate admissions to acute hospitals. Methods Fever and desaturation pathway (figure 1) was developed by IDCP team. Six participating NHs adopted the pathway and trained their staff. The study was approved by NHG domain specific review board (DSRB). Hospital records were reviewed. We compared the rate of inappropriate admission from 2015-2017 which serve as a baseline and 2019-2020. The wash-out period was 2018 when NHs were implementing the pathway. Inappropriate admission is defined as < ! 1. Admission is against advanced care planning / preferred plan of care or 2. Criteria in the pathway are not met on admission, 48 hours later and no other medical reason for admission. Figure 1 Results Total number of fever transfers was 950 in 2015-2017 and 688 in 2019-2020. Number of inappropriate admissions was 115 in 2015-2017 and 50 in 2019-2020. Inappropriate admission was 12.11% in 2015-2017 and 7.27 % in 2019-2020 (table 1). Figure 2 shows the rate of inappropriate admissions of six participating NHs from 2015-2020. There is a decreasing trend after the pathway has been implemented in 2018. Table 1 Figure 2 Conclusion Adopting fever and desaturation pathway has reduced the rate of inappropriate admission in six participating NHs in Singapore. However, there is an increasing trend in inappropriate admission in 2020. This could be due to the lack of isolation facility in the NHs during the COVID-19 pandemic. We are continuing the implementation of the pathway to the rest of the NHs in the western region of Singapore. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures.
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