Magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) are one kind of fundamental structures in the solar/space physics and involved in various eruption phenomena. Twist, characterizing how the magnetic field lines wind around a main axis, is an intrinsic property of MFRs, closely related to the magnetic free energy and stableness. Although the effect of the twist on the behavior of MFRs had been widely studied in observations, theory, modeling, and numerical simulations, it is still unclear how much amount of twist is carried by MFRs in the solar atmosphere and in heliosphere and what role the twist played in the eruptions of MFRs. Contrasting to the solar MFRs, there are lots of in situ measurements of magnetic clouds (MCs), the large‐scale MFRs in interplanetary space, providing some important information of the twist of MFRs. Thus, starting from MCs, we investigate the twist of interplanetary MFRs with the aid of a velocity‐modified uniform‐twist force‐free flux rope model. It is found that most of MCs can be roughly fitted by the model and nearly half of them can be fitted fairly well though the derived twist is probably overestimated by a factor of 2.5. By applying the model to 115 MCs observed at 1 AU, we find that (1) the twist angles of interplanetary MFRs generally follow a trend of about 0.6lR radians, where lR is the aspect ratio of a MFR, with a cutoff at about 12π radians AU−1, (2) most of them are significantly larger than 2.5π radians but well bounded by 2lR radians, (3) strongly twisted magnetic field lines probably limit the expansion and size of MFRs, and (4) the magnetic field lines in the legs wind more tightly than those in the leading part of MFRs. These results not only advance our understanding of the properties and behavior of interplanetary MFRs but also shed light on the formation and eruption of MFRs in the solar atmosphere. A discussion about the twist and stableness of solar MFRs are therefore given.

The radial expansion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is known to occur from remote observations; from the variation of their properties with radial distance; and from local in situ plasma measurements showing a decreasing speed profile throughout the magnetic ejecta (ME). However, little is known on how local measurements compare to global measurements of expansion. Here, we present results from the analysis of 42 CMEs measured in the inner heliosphere by two spacecraft in radial conjunction.The magnetic field decrease with distance provides a measure of their global expansion. Near 1 au, the decrease in their bulk speed provides a measure of their local expansion. We find that these two measures have little relation with each other. We also investigate the relation between characteristics of CME expansion and CME properties. We find that the expansion depends on the initial magnetic field strength inside the ME, but not significantly on the magnetic field inside the ME measured near 1 au. This is an indirect evidence that CME expansion in the innermost heliosphere is driven by the high magnetic pressure inside the ME, while by the time the MEs reach 1 au, they are expanding due to the decrease in the solar wind dynamic pressure with distance. We also determine the evolution of the ME tangential and normal magnetic field components with distance, revealing significant deviations as compared to the expectations from force-free field configurations as well as some evidence that the front half of MEs expand at a faster rate than the back half.

To investigate the factors that control the success and/or failure of solar eruptions, we study the magnetic field and 3-Dimensional (3D) configuration of 16 filament eruptions during 2010 July -2013 February. All these events, i.e., erupted but failed to be ejected to become a coronal mass ejection (CME), are failed eruptions with the filament maximum height exceeding 100M m. The magnetic field of filament source regions is approximated by a potential field extrapolation method. The filament 3D configuration is reconstructed from three vantage points by the observations of STEREO Ahead/Behind and SDO spacecraft. We calculate the decay index at the apex of these failed filaments and find that in 7 cases, their apex decay indexes exceed the theoretical threshold (n crit = 1.5) of the torus instability. We further determine the orientation change or rotation angle of each filament top during the eruption. Finally, the distribution of these events in the parameter space of rotation angle versus decay index is established. Four distinct regimes in the parameter space are empirically identified. We find that, all the torus-unstable cases (decay index n > 1.5), have a large rotation angles ranging from 50 • − 130 • . The possible mechanisms leading to the rotation and failed eruption are discussed. These results imply that, besides the torus instability, the rotation motion during the eruption may also play a significant role in solar eruptions.

This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. It is a part of the effort of the International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) project, sponsored by the SCOSTEP/VarSITI program (2014–2018). The Sun-Earth is an integrated physical system in which the space environment of the Earth sustains continuous influence from mass, magnetic field, and radiation energy output of the Sun in varying timescales from minutes to millennium. This article addresses short timescale events, from minutes to days that directly cause transient disturbances in the Earth’s space environment and generate intense adverse effects on advanced technological systems of human society. Such transient events largely fall into the following four types: (1) solar flares, (2) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) including their interplanetary counterparts ICMEs, (3) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and (4) stream interaction regions (SIRs) including corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In the last decade, the unprecedented multi-viewpoint observations of the Sun from space, enabled by STEREO Ahead/Behind spacecraft in combination with a suite of observatories along the Sun-Earth lines, have provided much more accurate and global measurements of the size, speed, propagation direction, and morphology of CMEs in both 3D and over a large volume in the heliosphere. Many CMEs, fast ones, in particular, can be clearly characterized as a two-front (shock front plus ejecta front) and three-part (bright ejecta front, dark cavity, and bright core) structure. Drag-based kinematic models of CMEs are developed to interpret CME propagation in the heliosphere and are applied to predict their arrival times at 1 AU in an efficient manner. Several advanced MHD models have been developed to simulate realistic CME events from the initiation on the Sun until their arrival at 1 AU. Much progress has been made on detailed kinematic and dynamic behaviors of CMEs, including non-radial motion, rotation and deformation of CMEs, CME-CME interaction, and stealth CMEs and problematic ICMEs. The knowledge about SEPs has also been significantly improved. An outlook of how to address critical issues related to Earth-affecting solar transients concludes this article.

The largest geomagnetic storm so far, called 2015 St. Patrick's Day event, in the solar cycle 24 was produced by a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) originating on 15 March 2015. It was an initially west‐oriented CME and expected to only cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance. Why did this CME finally cause such a large geomagnetic storm? We try to find some clues by investigating its propagation from the Sun to 1 AU. First, we reconstruct the CME's kinematic properties in the corona from the SOHO and Solar Dynamics Observatory imaging data with the aid of the graduated cylindrical shell model. It is suggested that the CME propagated to the west ∼33°±10° away from the Sun‐Earth line with a speed of about 817 km s−1 before leaving the field of view of the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) C3 camera. A magnetic cloud (MC) corresponding to this CME was measured in situ by the Wind spacecraft 2 days after the CME left LASCO's field of view. By applying two MC reconstruction methods, we infer the configuration of the MC as well as some kinematic information, which implies that the CME possibly experienced an eastward deflection on its way to 1 AU. However, due to the lack of observations from the STEREO spacecraft, the CME's kinematic evolution in interplanetary space is not clear. In order to fill this gap, we utilize numerical MHD simulation, drag‐based CME propagation model (DBM) and the model for CME deflection in interplanetary space (DIPS) to recover the propagation process, especially the trajectory, of the CME from 30RS to 1 AU under the constraints of the derived CME's kinematics near the Sun and at 1 AU. It is suggested that the trajectory of the CME was deflected toward the Earth by about 12°, consistent with the implication from the MC reconstruction at 1 AU. This eastward deflection probably contributed to the CME's unexpected geoeffectiveness by pushing the center of the initially west‐oriented CME closer to the Earth.

We present in this paper an operational solar wind prediction system. The system is an outcome of the collaborative efforts between scientists in research communities and forecasters at Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) in China. This system is mainly composed of three modules: (1) a photospheric magnetic field extrapolation module, along with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical method, to obtain the background solar wind speed and the magnetic field strength on the source surface; (2) a modified Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) kinematic module for simulating the propagation of solar wind structures in the interplanetary space; and (3) a coronal mass ejection (CME) detection module, which derives CME parameters using the ice-cream cone model based on coronagraph images. By bridging the gap between fundamental science and operational requirements, our system is finally capable of predicting solar wind conditions near Earth, especially the arrival times of the co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) and CMEs. Our test against historical solar wind data from 2007 to 2016 shows that the hit rate (HR) of the high-speed enhancements (HSEs) is 0.60 and the false alarm rate (FAR) is 0.30. The mean error (ME) and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the maximum speed for the same period are −73.9 km s−1 and 101.2 km s−1, respectively. Meanwhile, the ME and MAE of the arrival time of the maximum speed are 0.15 days and 1.27 days, respectively. There are 25 CMEs simulated and the MAE of the arrival time is 18.0 h.

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ∼5 kms −2 , followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 kms −2. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the "standard" eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to γ-rays. In addition, this longduration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended hard X-ray bursts with energies up to 100-300keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4hr. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed.

As one of the most violent astrophysical phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have strong potential space weather effects. However, not all Earth-directed CMEs encounter the Earth and produce geo-effects. One reason is the deflected propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space. Although there have been several case studies clearly showing such deflections, it has not yet been statistically assessed how significantly the deflected propagation would influence the CME’s arrival at Earth. We develop an integrated CME-arrival forecasting (iCAF) system, assembling the modules of CME detection, three-dimensional (3D) parameter derivation, and trajectory reconstruction to predict whether or not a CME arrives at Earth, and we assess the deflection influence on the CME-arrival forecasting. The performance of iCAF is tested by comparing the two-dimensional (2D) parameters with those in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) Data Center catalog, comparing the 3D parameters with those of the gradual cylindrical shell model, and estimating the success rate of the CME Earth-arrival predictions. It is found that the 2D parameters provided by iCAF and the CDAW catalog are consistent with each other, and the 3D parameters derived by the ice cream cone model based on single-view observations are acceptable. The success rate of the CME-arrival predictions by iCAF with deflection considered is about 82%, which is 19% higher than that without deflection, indicating the importance of the CME deflection for providing a reliable forecasting. Furthermore, iCAF is a worthwhile project since it is a completely automatic system with deflection taken into account.