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Forest ecosystems across the Central Appalachians will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of nine forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland for a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential tree responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists, land managers, and academics familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that average minimum temperatures have increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall. Precipitation has also increased in the area, particularly in fall. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2 to 8 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate increases in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). Model projections suggest that many mesic species, including American beech, eastern hemlock, eastern white pine, red spruce, and sugar maple may fare worse under future conditions, but other species such as eastern redcedar may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability.We assessed vulnerability for nine forest ecosystems in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 19 science and management experts from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts on a forest ecosystem and the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem. Appalachian (hemlock)/northern hardwood forests, large stream floodplain and riparian forests, small stream riparian forests, and spruce/fir forests were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems. Dry/mesic oak forests and dry oak and oak/pine forests and woodlands were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable ti...

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The Nature Conservancy participated in a Cooperative Agreement with the Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to explore the compatibility of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems and the conservation of biodiversity. The title of the research project was "Application and Development of Appropriate Tools and Technologies for Cost-Effective Carbon Sequestration".The objectives of the project were to: 1) improve carbon offset estimates produced in both the planning and implementation phases of projects; 2) build valid and standardized approaches to estimate project carbon benefits at a reasonable cost; and 3) lay the groundwork for implementing cost-effective projects, providing new testing ground for biodiversity protection and restoration projects that store additional atmospheric carbon. This Final Technical Report discusses the results of the six tasks that The Nature Conservancy undertook to answer research needs while facilitating the development of real projects with measurable greenhouse gas reductions. The research described in this report occurred between July 1 st 2001 and July 10 th 2008. The specific tasks discussed include: Task 1: carbon inventory advancements  Task 2: emerging technologies for remote sensing of terrestrial carbon  Task 3: baseline method development  Task 4: third-party technical advisory panel meetings  Task 5: new project feasibility studies  Task 6: development of new project software screening toolThe project occurred in two phases. The first was a focused exploration of specific carbon measurement and monitoring methodologies and pre-selected carbon sequestration opportunities. The second was a more systematic and comprehensive approach to compare various competing measurement and monitoring methodologies, and assessment of a variety of carbon sequestration opportunities in order to find those that are the lowest cost with the greatest combined carbon and other environmental benefits.In the first phase we worked in the U.S., Brazil, Belize, Bolivia, Peru, and Chile to develop and refine specific carbon inventory methods, pioneering a new remote-sensing method for costeffectively measuring and monitoring terrestrial carbon sequestration and system for developing carbon baselines for both avoided deforestation and afforestation/reforestation projects. We evaluated the costs and carbon benefits of a number of specific terrestrial carbon sequestration activities throughout the U.S., including reforestation of abandoned mined lands in southwest Virginia, grassland restoration in Arizona and Indiana, and reforestation in the Mississippi Alluvial Delta. The most cost-effective U.S. terrestrial sequestration opportunity we found through these studies was reforestation in the Mississippi Alluvial Delta.In Phase II we conducted a more systematic assessment and comparison of several different measurement and monitoring approaches in the Northern Cascades of California, and a broad 11-state Northeast regional assessment, rather than...

The Nature Conservancy is participating in a Cooperative Agreement with the Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to explore the compatibility of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems and the conservation of biodiversity. The title of the research projects is "Application and Development of Appropriate Tools and Technologies for Cost-Effective Carbon Sequestration".The objectives of the project are to: 1) improve carbon offset estimates produced in both the planning and implementation phases of projects; 2) build valid and standardized approaches to estimate project carbon benefits at a reasonable cost; and 3) lay the groundwork for implementing cost-effective projects, providing new testing ground for biodiversity protection and restoration projects that store additional atmospheric carbon. This Technical Progress Report discusses preliminary results of the six specific tasks that The Nature Conservancy is undertaking to answer research needs while facilitating the development of real projects with measurable greenhouse gas impacts. The specific tasks discussed include:• Task LIST OF GRAPHICAL MATERIALS EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Nature Conservancy is participating in a Cooperative Agreement with the Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to explore the compatibility of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems and the conservation of biodiversity. The work is being accomplished in close collaboration with NGO partners, government and academic institutions, and U.S. based companies. This research is being conducted on sites where carbon sequestration activities have been underway for several years, and on sites that appear to offer opportunities for carbon sequestration for those interested in taking action to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.Our objectives are to: 1) improve carbon offset estimates produced in both the planning and implementation phases of projects; 2) build valid and standardized approaches to estimate project carbon benefits at a reasonable cost; and 3) lay the groundwork for implementing cost-effective projects, providing new testing ground for biodiversity protection and restoration projects that store additional atmospheric carbon. The Nature Conservancy is undertaking six specific tasks to answer research needs while facilitating the development of real projects with measurable greenhouse gas impacts. The specific tasks include:• Task Task 1: Carbon Inventory AdvancementsIn Brazil, at projects supported by American Electric Power and General Motors, new regression equations were developed for fern trees (xaxim sp.). The equation shows that height and biomass are closely correlated. Some large trees were also harvested and weighed, and the results showed that there may need to be an adjustment made to the allometric equation that has been used to estimate biomass in trees. A vegetation map was also developed for this area in preparation for inventory work to be accomplished in coordination...