Central Appalachians forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework project

Abstract

Forest ecosystems across the Central Appalachians will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of nine forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland for a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential tree responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists, land managers, and academics familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that average minimum temperatures have increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall. Precipitation has also increased in the area, particularly in fall. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2 to 8 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate increases in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). Model projections suggest that many mesic species, including American beech, eastern hemlock, eastern white pine, red spruce, and sugar maple may fare worse under future conditions, but other species such as eastern redcedar may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability.We assessed vulnerability for nine forest ecosystems in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 19 science and management experts from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts on a forest ecosystem and the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem. Appalachian (hemlock)/northern hardwood forests, large stream floodplain and riparian forests, small stream riparian forests, and spruce/fir forests were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems. Dry/mesic oak forests and dry oak and oak/pine forests and woodlands were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable ti...

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