Disaster vulnerability is socially constructed, i.e., it arises out of the social and economic circumstances of everyday living. Most often discussed from the perspective of developing nations, this article extends the argument using American demographic trends. Examples from recent disasters, Hurricane Andrew in particular, illustrate how certain categories of people, such as the poor, the elderly, women-headed households and recent residents, are at greater risk throughout the disaster response process. Knowledge of where these groups are concentrated within communities and the general nature of their circumstances is an important step towards effective emergency management. Emergency planners, policy-makers and responding organisations are encouraged to identify and locate high-risk sectors on Community Vulnerability Maps, integrating this information into GIS systems where feasible. Effective disaster management calls for aggressively involving these neighbourhoods and groups at all levels of planning and response, as well as mitigation efforts that address the root causes of vulnerability.

A B S T R A C TSocial science research on natural disasters documents how a natural hazard such as a hurricane becomes a disaster through social processes and social structures that place human populations in general, and certain segments in particular, at risk. After a description of Hurricane Katrina and its impact, we describe how patterns of land development, and the economic and political history of New Orleans, set the stage for this disaster. An overview of past research findings on the relationship between citizen vulnerability and poverty, minority status, age and disability, gender and tenancy is followed by evidence of the extent to which each risk factor was present in the pre-Katrina New Orleans population. The authors then cite evidence of how social vulnerability influenced outcomes at various stages of the Hurricane Katrina catastrophe, including mitigation, preparation, evacuation, storm impacts, and recovery. The concluding section discusses how the goal of disaster resilient communities cannot be reached until basic issues of inequality and social justice are addressed.

This paper assesses the state of social science research specific to populations at risk vis-à-vis weather forecasting and warnings. Populations at risk are defined as groups historically disadvantaged by socio-economic status, patterns of discrimination and/or exclusion, lack of political representation and/or cultural distancing. These contexts marginalize some groups, leaving them less likely to receive, interpret and/or respond appropriately to forecasts and warnings. An overview of key concepts from vulnerability research is provided and research needs emanating from the social science literature relevant to forecasting and warning are suggested.Written for the Hurricane Forecast Socio-economic Workshop, February 16-18, 2005, Pomona, California.

This study uses data from a survey of coastal Miami-Dade County, Florida, residents to explore how different types of forecast and warning messages influence evacuation decisions, in conjunction with other factors. The survey presented different members of the public with different test messages about the same hypothetical hurricane approaching Miami. Participants’ responses to the information were evaluated using questions about their likelihood of evacuating and their perceptions of the information and the information source. Recipients of the test message about storm surge height and the message about extreme impacts from storm surge had higher evacuation intentions, compared to nonrecipients. However, recipients of the extreme-impacts message also rated the information as more overblown and the information source as less reliable. The probabilistic message about landfall location interacted with the other textual messages in unexpected ways, reducing the other messages’ effects on evacuation intentions. These results illustrate the importance of considering trade-offs, unintended effects, and information interactions when deciding how to convey weather information. Recipients of the test message that described the effectiveness of evacuation had lower perceptions that the information was overblown, suggesting the potential value of efficacy messaging. In addition, respondents with stronger individualist worldviews rated the information as significantly more overblown and had significantly lower evacuation intentions. This illustrates the importance of understanding how and why responses to weather messages vary across subpopulations. Overall, the analysis demonstrates the potential value of systematically investigating how different people respond to different types of weather risk messages.

b y B e t t y H . M o r r o w , J e f f r e y K . L a z o , Ja m i e R h o m e , a n d J e s s e F e y e n Survey findings from forecasters, emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, and the public pave the way tow ard more effective communication o f storm surge forecasts associated w ith tropical and extratropical cyclones. AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JANUARY 2 0 15 BARS' | 35