While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended‐range timescale referred to as subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short‐range weather prediction and long‐range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended‐range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications‐relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision‐making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended‐range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application‐ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.

Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists remains challenging. Improving forecast uncertainty communication requires research-based knowledge that can inform decisions on what uncertainty information to communicate, when, and how to do so. To help build such knowledge, this article explores the public's perspectives on everyday weather forecast uncertainty and uncertainty information using results from a nationwide survey. By contributing to the fundamental understanding of laypeople's views on forecast uncertainty, the findings can inform both uncertainty communication and related research.The article uses empirical data from a nationwide survey of the U.S. public to investigate beliefs commonly held among meteorologists and to explore new topics. The results show that when given a deterministic temperature forecast, most respondents expected the temperature to fall within a range around the predicted value. In other words, most people inferred uncertainty into the deterministic forecast. People's preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts were examined in two situations; in both, a significant majority of respondents liked weather forecasts that expressed uncertainty, and many preferred such forecasts to single-valued forecasts. The article also discusses people's confidence in different types of forecasts, their interpretations of the probability of precipitation forecasts, and their preferences for how forecast uncertainty is conveyed. Further empirical research is needed to study the article's findings in other contexts and to continue exploring perception, interpretation, communication, and use of weather forecast uncertainty.

This research examines and compares perceptions held by laypeople and ecologists about risks to ecosystems, particularly risk from global climate change (GCC). A survey elicited perceptions of 31 risk characteristics for 13 GCC and 12 non-GCC risks to ecosystems. Factor analysis was used to examine the structure of layperson and expert risk perceptions. Both experts and laypeople tend to perceive GCC risks to ecosystems as less avoidable and more acceptable than risks from other causes. Compared to laypeople's perceptions, though, experts perceived GCC risks to have slightly lower impacts, be less avoidable, more acceptable, and less understandable than non-GCC risks to ecosystems. These findings may help guide efforts to communicate with laypeople about ecological risks from climate change.

ABSTRACT:The hydrometeorological community has limited understanding of how people interpret forecast information and use it in decision making, hampering effective forecast communication. This article addresses these issues in the context of weather prediction, focusing especially on forecast uncertainty. It does so using empirical data from decision scenario questions asked in a nationwide US survey. Respondents were asked their probabilistic threshold for taking action to protect against potential rain or frost. They were then asked to make yes/no protective decisions in a potential reservoir flooding or fruit frost scenario given different forecasts. The results indicate that people have different probabilistic thresholds for taking protective action and that context and presentation influence forecast use. The results also suggest that many people infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts, and that many respondents were able to interpret probabilistic forecasts of the type presented well enough to use them in the decision questions. Further, the analysis suggests that most respondents did not make decisions according to the simplest form of the cost-loss decision model. The analysis also examines relationships between respondents' information use and other aspects of their perceptions and interpretations of forecast uncertainty, including their interpretations of probability of precipitation. The findings add to fundamental knowledge about people's interpretations and use of weather forecasts, especially forecasts that explicitly convey uncertainty, and provide a starting point for future related work using survey and experimental approaches.

Protective actions for hurricane threats are a function of the environmental and information context; individual and household characteristics, including cultural worldviews, past hurricane experiences, and risk perceptions; and motivations and barriers to actions. Using survey data from the Miami-Dade and Houston-Galveston areas, we regress individuals' stated evacuation intentions on these factors in two information conditions: (1) seeing a forecast that a hurricane will hit one's area, and (2) receiving an evacuation order. In both information conditions having an evacuation plan, wanting to keep one's family safe, and viewing one's home as vulnerable to wind damage predict increased evacuation intentions. Some predictors of evacuation intentions differ between locations; for example, Florida respondents with more egalitarian worldviews are more likely to evacuate under both information conditions, and Florida respondents with more individualist worldviews are less likely to evacuate under an evacuation order, but worldview was not significantly associated with evacuation intention for Texas respondents. Differences by information condition also emerge, including: (1) evacuation intentions decrease with age in the evacuation order condition but increase with age in the saw forecast condition, and (2) evacuation intention in the evacuation order condition increases among those who rely on public sources of information on hurricane threats, whereas in the saw forecast condition evacuation intention increases among those who rely on personal sources. Results reinforce the value of focusing hurricane information efforts on evacuation plans and residential vulnerability and suggest avenues for future research on how hurricane contexts shape decision making.

Individuals’ past experiences with a hazard can encompass many different aspects, which can influence how they judge and respond to a future hurricane risk. This study, which utilizes survey data from coastal residents who are at risk from hurricanes, adds to understanding of past hazard experience in two ways. First, it examines six different aspects of people’s past hurricane experiences and the relationships among them. Then, it draws on risk theories of behavioral responses to explore how these different experiences influence people’s evacuation intentions for a hypothetical hurricane as mediated through multiple dimensions of risk perception (cognitive, negative affective) and efficacy beliefs (self efficacy, response efficacy). The results suggest that people can experience emotional or otherwise severe impacts from a hurricane even if they do not have experiences with evacuation, property damage, or financial loss. The results also reveal that different past hurricane experiences operated through different combinations of mediating variables to influence evacuation intentions. Some of these processes enhanced intentions; for instance, experience with evacuation, financial loss, or emotional impacts heightened negative affective risk perceptions, which increased evacuation intentions. Other processes dampened evacuation intentions; for instance, people with past hurricane-related emotional impacts had lower self efficacy, which decreased evacuation intentions. In some cases, these enhancing and dampening processes competed. Exploring people’s different past weather experiences and the mechanisms by which they can influence future behaviors is important for more deeply understanding populations at risk and how they respond to weather threats.

This study uses data from a survey of coastal Miami-Dade County, Florida, residents to explore how different types of forecast and warning messages influence evacuation decisions, in conjunction with other factors. The survey presented different members of the public with different test messages about the same hypothetical hurricane approaching Miami. Participants’ responses to the information were evaluated using questions about their likelihood of evacuating and their perceptions of the information and the information source. Recipients of the test message about storm surge height and the message about extreme impacts from storm surge had higher evacuation intentions, compared to nonrecipients. However, recipients of the extreme-impacts message also rated the information as more overblown and the information source as less reliable. The probabilistic message about landfall location interacted with the other textual messages in unexpected ways, reducing the other messages’ effects on evacuation intentions. These results illustrate the importance of considering trade-offs, unintended effects, and information interactions when deciding how to convey weather information. Recipients of the test message that described the effectiveness of evacuation had lower perceptions that the information was overblown, suggesting the potential value of efficacy messaging. In addition, respondents with stronger individualist worldviews rated the information as significantly more overblown and had significantly lower evacuation intentions. This illustrates the importance of understanding how and why responses to weather messages vary across subpopulations. Overall, the analysis demonstrates the potential value of systematically investigating how different people respond to different types of weather risk messages.

1This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and 2 decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, 3 USA. Respondents varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, 4 and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing 5 water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of U.S. watch-warning alert 6 terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally 7 dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation 8 and use of warning information along with knowledge about warning terminology. Some public 9 respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were 10 associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. 11Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood 12 warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed 13 themselves to be safer from flash flooding. In addition, the analysis elucidates the complex, 14 contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings 15 suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a 16 threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate 17 what actions to take given their situation. 18 19 Keywords: Flash flooding, warnings, risk perception, communication, decision making 20 4 impacts, and thus present distinct challenges for communicating and responding to threats. To 41 help address these challenges, this study investigates people's perceptions, understandings, and 42 interpretations of flash flood risks and alerts 1 and their anticipated responses to flash flood 43 warnings. The analysis focuses on members of the public in the U.S., utilizing data from a survey 44 of 418 residents of Boulder, Colorado, conducted in 2010. 45 The article examines three research questions: 1) How do members of the Boulder public 46 perceive and understand flash flood risks? 2) How do they perceive and interpret flash flood 47 warnings and other alerts?; and 3) How do they anticipate responding to flash flood alerts, and 48 what influences their anticipated responses? This includes investigating people's knowledge, 49 attitudes, and beliefs about flash flood risks and alerts and their anticipated decisions when a 50 flash flood threatens. For time-sensitive hazards such as flash floods, people's interpretations and 51 decision processes during a real threat are complex and difficult to measure, especially among 52 people at high risk. By examining people's anticipated interpretations and behavior in 53 hypothetical contexts, this study seeks to develop knowledge that can help understand what 54 people think and do during more complicated real-worl...