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The study of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in vertebrates has attracted major scientific interest. Recently, concerns for species with TSD in a warming world have increased because imbalanced sex ratios could potentially threaten population viability. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the direct effects of increased temperatures on successful embryonic development. Using 6603 days of sand temperature data recorded across 6 years at a globally important loggerhead sea turtle rookery-the Cape Verde Islands-we show the effects of warming incubation temperatures on the survival of hatchlings in nests. Incorporating published data (n = 110 data points for three species across 12 sites globally), we show the generality of relationships between hatchling mortality and incubation temperature and hence the broad applicability of our findings to sea turtles in general. We use a mechanistic approach supplemented by empirical data to consider the linked effects of warming temperatures on hatchling output and on sex ratios for these species that exhibit TSD. Our results show that higher temperatures increase the natural growth rate of the population as more females are produced. As a result, we project that numbers of nests at this globally important site will increase by approximately 30% by the year 2100. However, as incubation temperatures near lethal levels, the natural growth rate of the population decreases and the long-term survival of this turtle population is threatened. Our results highlight concerns for species with TSD in a warming world and underline the need for research to extend from a focus on temperature-dependent sex determination to a focus on temperature-linked hatchling mortalities.

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For many species abundance data from across their entire range are incomplete, and therefore it is difficult to accurately assess their conservation status. Even for species that are large, charismatic and relatively easy to study, conservation assessments are often hampered by lack of data. Here we report a marked, previously undescribed, increase in numbers at a breeding colony of the loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta, a species that is Critically Endangered in several parts of its range, and place this report in the global context for this species. We present a 10-year (2008–2017) dataset of nesting activities for this species on the island of Sal, one of the Cape Verde islands in the Atlantic Ocean. Foot patrols recorded 21,938 nests during the study period. We estimate that the annual number of nests on Sal increased from 506 in 2008 to 7,771 in 2017. Taking into account that there are only two known loggerhead turtle rookeries (on Masirah Island, Oman, and in Florida, USA) with > 50,000 nests reported annually, and few with > 1,000 nests per year, our results suggest that Sal is one of the 10 largest loggerhead turtle rookeries globally. Our work highlights the conservation significance of reporting trends in abundance at breeding sites for marine turtles and other taxa.

With some taxa, a reduction in the mean size of individuals may reflect over-harvesting and/or trophy hunting. However, we show that in sea turtles, a reduction in the mean size of breeding individuals may be part of the good news story of an expanding population. We describe a 70-fold increase in annual nest numbers on the island of Sal (Cape Verde, North Atlantic) between 2008 and 2020 (from 506 to 35 507 nests), making this now one of the largest loggerhead ( Caretta caretta ) nesting aggregations in the world. We use 20 128 measurements of the size of nesting turtles to show that their mean annual size has decreased by about 2.4 cm, from 83.2 to 80.8 cm. This decrease in the mean size of nesting turtles was not caused by the removal of larger turtles, for example by selective harvesting. Rather we develop a theoretical model to show than this decrease in mean size can be explained by an influx of first-time nesters, combined with a decrease in the size of those first-time nesters over time. A reduction in mean size of nesting turtles has been reported across the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and may be a common feature of population recoveries in sea turtles.