Since the 1970s, early exit from work has become a major challenge in modern welfare states. Governments, employers, and unions alike once thought of early retirement as a peaceful solution to the economic problems of mass unemployment and industrial restructuring. Today, governments and international organizations advocate the postponement of retirement and an increase in activity among older workers. Comparing eight European countries, the USA, and Japan, this book demonstrates significant cross-national differences in early retirement across countries and over time. The study evaluates the impact of major variations in welfare regimes, production systems, and labor relations. It stresses the importance of the ‘pull factor’ of extensive welfare state provisions, particularly in Continental Europe; the ‘push factor’ of labor shedding strategies by firms, particularly in Anglo-American market economies; and the role of employers and worker representatives in negotiating retirement policies, particularly in coordinated market economies. Over the last three decades, early retirement has become a popular social policy and employment practice in the workplace, adding to the fiscal crises and employment problems of today’s welfare states. Attempts to reverse early retirement policies have led to major reform debates. Unilateral government policies to cut back on social benefits have not had the expected employment results due to resistance from employers, workers, and their organizations. Successful reforms require the cooperation of both sides. This study provides comprehensive empirical analyses and a balanced approach to both the pull and the push factors needed to understand the development of early retirement regimes.Part I Exploring Interests and Institutions Chapter 1 Introduction: The Paradox of Early Exit from Work Chapter 2 Actor Constellations and Interest Coalitions: Labor, Employers, and the State Chapter 3 Protection, Production, and Partnership Institutions: From Institutional Affinities to Complementarities Part II Comparing Early Exit Regimes Chapter 4 Ever Earlier Retirement: Comparing Employment Trajectories Chapter 5 The Protection‐Pull Factors: Multiple Pathways to Early Exit Chapter 6 The Production‐Push Factors: The Political Economy of Labor Shedding Part III Reform Obstacles and Opportunities Chapter 7 Exit from Early Retirement: Paradigm Shifts, Policy Reversals, and Reform Obstacles Chapter 8 Conclusion: From Path Dependence to Path Departure

During the early post-war period, Western trade union movements grew in membership and achieved an institutionalized role in industrial relations and politics. However, during the last decades, many trade unions have seen their membership decline as they came increasingly under pressures due to the social, economic and political changes. This article reviews the main structural, cyclical and institutional factors explaining union growth and decline. Concentrating on Western Europe, the empirical analysis compares cross-national union density data for 13 countries over the first period and for 16 countries over the second, "crisis" period . The quantitative correlation and regression analysis indicates that structural and cyclical factors fail explain the level and changes in unionization across Western Europe, while institutional variables fare better. In a second, qualitative comparative analysis, the authors stress the need to explain cross-national differences in the level or trend of unionization by a set of institutional arrangements: the access of unions to representation in the workplace, the availability of a selective incentive in the form of a union-administered unemployment scheme, recognition of employers through nation-wide and sectoral corporatist institutions, and closed shop arrangements for forced membership. Such institutional configurations support membership recruitment and membership retention, and define the conditions for the strategic choice of trade unions in responding to structural social-economic, political and cultural changes. Acknowledgement

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Union density still varies considerably across Europe. This cross-national diversity has inspired multiple explanations ranging from institutional to workplace or socio-demographic factors. In this comparative multilevel analysis, we combine personal, workplace and macro-institutional explanations of union membership using the European Social Survey. By controlling for individual factors, we test the cross-national effect of meso- and macro-level variables, in particular workplace representation, establishment size, Ghent unemployment insurance and a society’s social capital. We conclude that all these institutional and social contextual factors matter in explaining differences in union membership.

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In response to the demographic challenges and fiscal constraints, many European welfare states have moved toward the privatization and marketization of pensions in order to improve their financial sustainability. The privatization of retirement income responsibility has led to a shift from dominantly public pensions to a multi‐pillar architecture with growing private pillars composed of personal, firm‐based, or collectively negotiated pension arrangements. At the same time, marketization has led to the introduction and expansion of prefunded pension savings based on financial investments as well as stronger reliance of market‐logic principles in the remaining public pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) pensions. However, there are also important cross‐national variations in the speed, scope, and structural outcome of the privatization and marketization of European pension systems. Liberal market economies, but also some coordinated market economies (the Netherlands and Switzerland) as well as the Nordic countries have embraced multi‐pillar strategies earlier and more widely, while the Bismarckian pensions systems and the post‐socialist transition countries of Eastern Europe have been belated converts. The recent financial market and economic crisis, however, indicates that the double transformation may entail short‐term problems and long‐term uncertainties about the social and political sustainability of these privatized and marketized multi‐pillar strategies.

MPIfG Discussion Papers are refereed scholarly papers of the kind that are publishable in a peer-reviewed disciplinary journal. Their objective is to contribute to the cumulative improvement of theoretical knowledge. The papers can be ordered from the institute for a small fee (hard copies) or downloaded free of charge (PDF). AbstractPath dependence as a concept in institutional theories has become increasingly popular in economics and other social sciences. The key idea is that in a sequence of events, the latter events are not (completely) independent from those that occurred in the past. Yet, common usage of the concept often subsumes two markedly different models and approaches to understand historical sequencing. The two main processes of the past shaping the future -diffusion and developmental pathways -must be distinguished analytically. This paper juxtaposes (1) the unplanned "trodden path" that takes shape through the subsequent repeated use by other individuals of that spontaneously chosen path, and (2) the "branching pathways" or juncture at which one of the available alternative pathways must be chosen in order to continue a journey. Furthermore, the typical approaches and their explanatory purchase are discussed in reference to explanations of institutional change. The paper shows that the first path dependence theorem is too deterministic and inflexible, whereas the second approach is sufficiently supple to analyze various forms of institutional change. ZusammenfassungPfadabhängigkeit wird in den Sozial-und Wirtschaftswissenschaften zunehmend als Konzept institutioneller Theorien angewendet. Der Grundgedanke ist, dass in einer Sequenz von Ereignissen (oder Entscheidungen) spätere nicht (vollkommen) unabhängig von vorangegangenen sind. Jedoch wird in gängigen Anwendungen des Konzepts oft versäumt, nach zwei äußerst unterschiedlichen Verständnissen historischer Sequenzen zu differenzieren. Die zwei Prozesse der Strukturierung der Zukunft durch die Vergangenheit -Diffusionspfade und Entwicklungspfade -sollen analytisch getrennt werden. Dieser Aufsatz unterscheidet (1) den zufälligen "Trampelpfad", welcher durch die vermehrte Benutzung eines Pfades spontan entsteht, von (2) dem "Scheideweg", an dem einer der möglichen Pfade gewählt werden muss, um den Weg fortzusetzen. Im Weiteren wird der Erklärungsbeitrag der beiden Ansätze in Bezug auf die Erklärung institutionellen Wandels erörtert. Es zeigt sich, dass das erste Pfadabhängigkeitstheorem zu deterministisch und inflexibel ist, der zweite Pfadabhängig-keitsansatz hingegen offen genug, unterschiedliche Formen institutionellen Wandels zu analysieren.

Current theories of unions are mainly theories of what unions were and did rather than theories of what unions will be and will do. Thus, the purpose of this book is to help make economic thinking about unions in Europe more forward‐looking and to discuss the role that unions are likely to play in the changed economic environment of the new century. The volume consists of two reports that are the results of coordinated efforts by some of the most authoritative scholars in the field. The first study addresses a number of issues related to the question of how the primary role of trade unions—collective bargaining over wages and work conditions—is likely to evolve in the early decades of the new millennium. Starting from the widespread impression of a trend toward weakening union power, the main aspects considered by the analysis are membership, wage effects, organization and presence of unions, bargaining structure, macroeconomic performance, future scenarios, and strategies. The second study investigates the interactions between trade unions, welfare systems, and welfare reforms. The overall theme is the policy dilemma created by the many different activities of trade unions in the field of welfare provision, notably pension policies and unemployment protection. Throughout the analysis, a tension emerges between the role of unions as voice of atomistic agents and insurance providers—that may contribute to increasing aggregate welfare by remedying market failures—and as rent‐seeking monopolist, underlying the intergenerational conflicts present within unions. The studies point to measures and strategies enhancing this second efficient role of the unions that draws mainly on their capacity to internalize to the employer–employee relationships costs that would otherwise fall on society at large.