No abstract

[1] Monthly CO 2 fluxes are estimated across 1988-2003 for 22 emission regions using data from 78 CO 2 measurement sites. The same inversion (method, priors, data) is performed with 13 different atmospheric transport models, and the spread in the results is taken as a measure of transport model error. Interannual variability (IAV) in the winds is not modeled, so any IAV in the measurements is attributed to IAV in the fluxes. When both this transport error and the random estimation errors are considered, the flux IAV obtained is statistically significant at P 0.05 when the fluxes are grouped into land and ocean components for three broad latitude bands, but is much less so when grouped into continents and basins. The transport errors have the largest impact in the extratropical northern latitudes. A third of the 22 emission regions have significant IAV, including the Tropical East Pacific (with physically plausible uptake/release across the 1997-2000 El Niño/La Niña) and Tropical Asia (with strong release in 1997/1998 coinciding with large-scale fires there). Most of the global IAV is attributed robustly to the tropical/southern land biosphere, including both the large release during the 1997/1998 El Niño and the post-Pinatubo uptake.

Abstract. Carbon storage by many terrestrial ecosystems can be limited by nutrients, predominantly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), in addition to other environmental constraints, water, light and temperature. However the spatial distribution and the extent of both N and P limitation at the global scale have not been quantified. Here we have developed a global model of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles for the terrestrial biosphere. Model estimates of steady state C and N pool sizes and major fluxes between plant, litter and soil pools, under present climate conditions, agree well with various independent estimates. The total amount of C in the terrestrial biosphere is 2767 Gt C, and the C fractions in plant, litter and soil organic matter are 19%, 4% and 77%. The total amount of N is 135 Gt N, with about 94% stored in the soil, 5% in the plant live biomass, and 1% in litter. We found that the estimates of total soil P and its partitioning into different pools in soil are quite sensitive to biochemical P mineralization. The total amount of P (plant biomass, litter and soil) excluding occluded P in soil is 17 Gt P in the terrestrial biosphere, 33% of which is stored in the soil organic matter if biochemical P mineralization is modelled, or 31 Gt P with 67% in soil organic matter otherwise.This model was used to derive the global distribution and uncertainty of N or P limitation on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems at steady state under present conditions. Our model estimates that the net primary productivity of most tropical evergreen broadleaf forests and tropical savannahs Correspondence to: Y. P. Wang (Yingping.wang@csiro.au) is reduced by about 20% on average by P limitation, and most of the remaining biomes are N limited; N limitation is strongest in high latitude deciduous needle leaf forests, and reduces its net primary productivity by up to 40% under present conditions.

[1] The TransCom 3 experiment was begun to explore the estimation of carbon sources and sinks via the inversion of simulated tracer transport. We build upon previous TransCom work by presenting the seasonal inverse results which provide estimates of carbon flux for 11 land and 11 ocean regions using 12 atmospheric transport models. The monthly fluxes represent the mean seasonal cycle for the 1992 to 1996 time period. The spread among the model results is larger than the average of their estimated flux uncertainty in the northern extratropics and vice versa in the tropical regions. In the northern land regions, the model spread is largest during the growing season. Compared to a seasonally balanced biosphere prior flux generated by the CASA model, we find significant changes to the carbon exchange in the European region with greater growing season net uptake which persists into the fall months. Both Boreal North America and Boreal Asia show lessened net uptake at the onset of the growing season with Boreal Asia also exhibiting greater peak growing season net uptake. Temperate Asia shows a dramatic springward shift in the peak timing of growing season net uptake relative to the neutral CASA flux while Temperate North America exhibits a broad flattening of the seasonal cycle. In most of the ocean regions, the inverse fluxes exhibit much greater seasonality than that implied by the DpCO 2 derived fluxes though this may be due, in part, to misallocation of adjacent land flux. In the Southern Ocean, the austral spring and fall exhibits much less carbon uptake than implied by DpCO 2 derived fluxes. Sensitivity testing indicates that the inverse estimates are not overly influenced by the prior flux choices. Considerable agreement exists between the model mean, annual mean results of this study and that of the previously published TransCom annual mean inversion. The differences that do exist are in poorly constrained regions and tend to exhibit compensatory fluxes in order to match the global mass constraint. The differences between the estimated fluxes and the prior model over the northern land regions could be due to the prior model respiration response to temperature. Significant phase differences, such as that in the Temperate Asia region, may be due to the limited observations for that region. Finally, differences in the boreal land regions between the prior model and the estimated fluxes may be a reflection of the timing of spring thaw and an imbalance in respiration versus photosynthesis.

Spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations contain information about surface sources and sinks, which can be quantitatively interpreted through tracer transport inversion. Previous CO 2 inversion calculations obtained differing results due to different data, methods and transport models used. To isolate the sources of uncertainty, we have conducted a set of annual mean inversion experiments in which 17 different transport models or model variants were used to calculate regional carbon sources and sinks from the same data with a standardized method. Simulated transport is a significant source of uncertainty in these calculations, particularly in the response to prescribed "background" fluxes due to fossil fuel combustion, a balanced terrestrial biosphere, and air-sea gas exchange. Individual model-estimated fluxes are often a direct reflection of their response to these background fluxes. Models that generate strong surface maxima near background exchange locations tend to require larger uptake near those locations. Models with weak surface maxima tend to have less uptake in those same regions but may infer small sources downwind. In some cases, individual model flux estimates cannot be analyzed through simple relationships to background flux responses but are

Abstract. Carbon storage by many terrestrial ecosystems can be limited by nutrients, predominantly nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P), in additional to other environmental constraints, water, light and temperature. However the spatial distribution and the extent of both N and P limitation at global scale have not been quantified. Here we have developed a global model of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles for the terrestrial biosphere. Model estimates of steady state C and N pool sizes and major fluxes between plant, litter and soil pools, under present climate conditions, agree well with various independent estimates. The total amount of C in the terrestrial biosphere is 2526 Gt C, and the C fractions in plant, litter and soil organic matter are 21, 6 and 73%. The total amount of N is 124 Gt N, with about 94% stored in the soil, 5% in the plant live biomass, and 1% in litter. We found that the estimates of total soil P and its partitioning into different pools in soil are quite sensitive to biochemical P mineralization that has not been included in any other global models previously. The total amount of P is 26 Gt P in the terrestrial biosphere, 17% of which is stored in the soil organic matter if biochemical P mineralization is modelled, or 40 Gt P, with 60% in soil organic matter, otherwise. This model was used to derive the global distribution of N or P limitation on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Our model predicts that the net primary productivity of most tropical evergreen broadleaf forests and tropical savannahs is reduced by about 20% on average by P limitation, and most of the remaining biomes are N limited; N limitation is strongest in high latitude deciduous needle leaf forests, and reduces its net primary productivity by up to 40% under present conditions.

[1] High-precision, multispecies measurements of flask air samples since 1992 from CSIRO's global sampling network reveal strong correlation among interannual growth rate variations of CO 2 and its d 13 C, H 2 , CH 4 , and CO. We show that a major fraction of the variability is consistent with two emission pulses coinciding with large biomass burning events in 1994/1995 and 1997/1998 in tropical and boreal regions, and observations of unusually high levels of combustion products in the overlying troposphere at these times. Implied pulse strengths and multispecies emission ratios are not consistent with any other single process, but do not exclude possible contributions from covarying processes that are linked through climatic forcing. Comparison of CO 2 with its d 13 C indicates that most of the CO 2 variation is from terrestrial exchange, but does not distinguish forcing by biomass burning from imbalance in photosynthesis/respiration of terrestrial ecosystems. Partitioning of terrestrial CO 2 fluxes is constrained by H 2 , CH 4 , and CO, all of which are products of biomass burning but which have no direct link to net respiration of CO 2 . While CO is a strong indicator of biomass burning, its short lifetime prevents it from usefully constraining the magnitude of CO 2 emissions. If the H 2 and CH 4 variations were dominated by biomass burning, they would imply associated carbon emissions in excess of mean annual levels of other years, of 0.6-3.5 and 0. 8-3.7 Pg C for 19948-3.7 Pg C for /19958-3.7 Pg C for and 19978-3.7 Pg C for /1998. The large range in emission estimates mainly reflects uncertainty in H 2 /CO 2 and CH 4 /CO 2 emission ratios of fires in these years.

The Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) was designed to be a land surface model (LSM) benchmarking intercomparison. Unlike the traditional methods of LSM evaluation or comparison, benchmarking uses a fundamentally different approach in that it sets expectations of performance in a range of metrics a priori-before model simulations are performed. This can lead to very different conclusions about LSM performance. For this study, both simple physically based models and empirical relationships were used as the benchmarks. Simulations were performed with 13 LSMs using atmospheric forcing for 20 sites, and then model performance relative to these benchmarks was examined. Results show that even for commonly used statistical metrics, the LSMs' performance varies considerably when compared to the different benchmarks. All models outperform the simple physically based benchmarks, but for sensible heat flux the LSMs are themselves outperformed by an out-of-sample linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. While moisture information is clearly central to latent heat flux prediction, the LSMs are still outperformed by a three-variable nonlinear regression that uses instantaneous atmospheric humidity and temperature in addition to downward shortwave radiation. These results highlight the limitations of the prevailing paradigm of LSM evaluation that simply compares an LSM to observations and to other LSMs without a mechanism to objectively quantify the expectations of performance. The authors conclude that their results challenge the conceptual view of energy partitioning at the land surface.