The aim of this study was to develop a basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and to update operational calculations for the national inventory in Norway. Development of basic models utilized information that is available only from feeding experiments. Basic models were developed using a database with 63 treatment means from 19 studies and were evaluated against an external database (n = 36, from 10 studies) along with other extant models. In total, the basic model database included 99 treatment means from 29 studies with records for enteric CH4 production (MJ/day), dry matter intake (DMI) and dietary nutrient composition. When evaluated by low root mean square prediction errors and high concordance correlation coefficients, the developed basic models that included DMI, dietary concentrations of fatty acids and neutral detergent fiber performed slightly better in predicting CH4 emissions than extant models. In order to propose country-specific values for the CH4 conversion factor Ym (% of gross energy intake partitioned into CH4) and thus to be able to carry out the national inventory for Norway, the existing operational model was updated for the prediction of Ym over a wide range of feeding situations. A simulated operational database containing CH4 production (predicted by the basic model), feed intake and composition, Ym and gross energy intake (GEI), in addition to the predictor variables energy corrected milk yield and dietary concentrate share were used to develop an operational model. Input values of Ym were updated based on the results from the basic models. The predicted Ym ranged from 6.22 to 6.72%. In conclusion, the prediction accuracy of CH4 production from dairy cows was improved with the help of newly published data, which enabled an update of the operational model for calculating the national inventory of CH4 in Norway.
High‐quality grass silages may represent a mitigation option by reducing enteric methane production and by increasing productivity, thus reducing greenhouse gas emissions per kg of product (emission intensity). Two previous studies found considerable effects of three different silage qualities cut at different maturity stages (very early [H1], early [H2] and normal [H3]) offered ad libitum with various levels of concentrate supplementation, on animal performances of growing/finishing bulls and dairy cows in early lactation, indicating that emission intensities may also vary. Based on results from these previous studies, the aim of this study was to estimate emission intensities for milk and beef carcasses for the included combinations of silage qualities and concentrate levels, by using the farm‐scale model HolosNor. The emissions intensities were lowest for the H1 silage, and highest for the H3 silage, independent of concentrate levels for both milk and beef. Thus, increasing concentrate levels did not compensate for lower grass silage quality. Improvements in silage quality from H3 silage to H2 is realistic and has the potential to reduce emission intensities with approximately 10% while keeping the milk yield per cow constant and reducing the use of concentrates considerably. For beef production, the potential is even larger, with a reduction in emission intensity of approximately 17%. We conclude that improving grass silage quality may be a mitigation option that will also reduce the dependence on concentrates.
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