Resilience building has become a growing policy agenda, particularly for urban risk management. While much of the resilience agenda has been shaped by policies and discourses from the global North, its applicability for cities of the global South, particularly African cities, has not been sufficiently assessed. Focusing on rights of urban citizens as the object to be made resilient, rather than physical and ecological infrastructures, may help to address many of the root causes that characterize the unacceptable risks that urban residents face on a daily basis. Linked to this idea, we discuss four entry points for grounding a rights and justice orientation for urban resilience. First, notions of resilience must move away from narrow, financially oriented risk analyses. Second, opportunities must be created for "negotiated resilience", to allow for attention to processes that support these goals, as well as for the integration of diverse interests. Third, achieving resilience in ways that do justice to the local realities of diverse urban contexts necessitates taking into account endogenous, locally situated processes, knowledges and norms. And finally, urban resilience needs to be placed within the context of global systems, providing an opportunity for African contributions to help reimagine the role that cities might play in these global financial, political and science processes.
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AbstractThis paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Based on a Markov-switching model, high financial stress regimes are identified, and a simple algorithm is used to select those episodes of financial stress that are associated with a substantial negative impact on the real economy. By applying this framework to 27 European Union countries, the paper is a first attempt to provide a chronology of systemic financial stress episodes in addition to the expert-detected events that are currently available.
Non-Technical SummaryIt is widely agreed that the global financial crisis that started in 2007 was an episode of severe financial market stress, which spilled over to the real economy causing the Great Recession. However, it is much more difficult to identify and classify other periods of, possibly systemic, financial market stress. The expert-based approach to identifying episodes of systemic financial stress prevails so far, but an objective and reproducible method for the detection of periods of low and high financial stress is lacking. A comprehensive analysis of the succession of tranquil and stress periods is a prerequisite to determining the leading indicators of systemic financial stress and evaluating the effectiveness of prudential policies implemented over the course of the financial cycle. This paper provides a new framework for a transparent and objective identification of systemic financial stress episodes, i.e., periods of high financial stress associated with a substantial and prolonged decline in real economic activity. By applying the framework to the countries of the European Union (EU), this is the first paper to build a consistent monthly chronology of EU systemic financial stress episodes beyond the expert-detected crises currently available. In fact, a continuous measure of financial stress is converted into a binary systemic stress dummy, commonly used in early-warning models.The model-based framework consists of three steps. First, we build on the existing financial stress literature and construct a simple country-specific financial stress index for 27 EU countries starting as early as 1964 for core EU countries. The essential feature of the financial stress index is that it captures co-movements in key financial market...
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