Abstract. Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30 % of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production, NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is timedependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, which is the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times.Moreover, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a threedimensional (3-D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. In addition, the physical emulators make data assimilation computationPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 146Y. Luo et al.: Land carbon storage dynamics ally feasible so that both C flux-and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. Overall, this new mathematical framework offers new approaches to understanding, evaluating, diagnosing, and improving land C cycle models.

We develop a theory for transit times and mean ages for nonautonomous compartmental systems. Using the McKendrick–von Förster equation, we show that the mean ages of mass in a compartmental system satisfy a linear nonautonomous ordinary differential equation that is exponentially stable. We then define a nonautonomous version of transit time as the mean age of mass leaving the compartmental system at a particular time and show that our nonautonomous theory generalises the autonomous case. We apply these results to study a nine-dimensional nonautonomous compartmental system modeling the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a modification of the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model, and we demonstrate that the nonautonomous versions of transit time and mean age differ significantly from the autonomous quantities when calculated for that model.

In this paper, we propose a nonlinear fractional order model in order to explain and understand the outbreaks of influenza A(H1N1). In the fractional model, the next state depends not only upon its current state but also upon all of its historical states. Thus, the fractional model is more general than the classical epidemic models. In order to deal with the fractional derivatives of the model, we rely on the Caputo operator and on the Grünwald–Letnikov method to numerically approximate the fractional derivatives. We conclude that the nonlinear fractional order epidemic model is well suited to provide numerical results that agree very well with real data of influenza A(H1N1) at the level population. In addition, the proposed model can provide useful information for the understanding, prediction, and control of the transmission of different epidemics worldwide. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract.A number of nonlinear models have recently been proposed for simulating soil carbon decomposition. Their predictions of soil carbon responses to fresh litter input and warming differ significantly from conventional linear models. Using both stability analysis and numerical simulations, we showed that two of those nonlinear models (a two-pool model and a three-pool model) exhibit damped oscillatory responses to small perturbations. Stability analysis showed the frequency of oscillation is proportional to ε −1 − 1 K s /V s in the two-pool model, and to ε −1 − 1 K l /V l in the threepool model, where ε is microbial growth efficiency, K s and K l are the half saturation constants of soil and litter carbon, respectively, and V s and V l are the maximal rates of carbon decomposition per unit of microbial biomass for soil and litter carbon, respectively. For both models, the oscillation has a period of between 5 and 15 years depending on other parameter values, and has smaller amplitude at soil temperatures between 0 and 15 • C. In addition, the equilibrium pool sizes of litter or soil carbon are insensitive to carbon inputs in the nonlinear model, but are proportional to carbon input in the conventional linear model. Under warming, the microbial biomass and litter carbon pools simulated by the nonlinear models can increase or decrease, depending whether ε varies with temperature. In contrast, the conventional linear models always simulate a decrease in both microbial and litter carbon pools with warming. Based on the evidence available, we concluded that the oscillatory behavior and insensitivity of soil carbon to carbon input are notable features in these nonlinear models that are somewhat unrealistic. We recommend that a better model for capturing the soil carbon dynamics over decadal to centennial timescales would combine the sensitivity of the conventional models to carbon influx with the flexible response to warming of the nonlinear model.

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ElsevierChen Charpentier, BM.; Cortés, J.; Licea Salazar, JA.; Romero, J.; Roselló Ferragud, MD.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2015). Constructing adaptive generalized polynomial chaos method to measure the uncertainty in continuous models: A computational approach. AbstractDue to errors in measurements and inherent variability in the quantities of interest, models based on random differential equations give more realistic results than their deterministic counterpart. The generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) is a powerful technique used to approximate the solution of these equations when the random inputs follow standard probability distributions. But in many cases these random inputs do not have a standard probability distribution. In this paper, we present a step-by-step constructive methodology to implement directly a useful version of adaptive gPC for arbitrary distributions, extending the applicability of the gPC. The paper mainly focuses on the computational aspects, on the implementation of the method and on the creation of a useful software tool. This tool allows the user to easily change the types of distributions and the order of the expansions, and to study their the usefulness of the method are included.

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