By linking iterative learning and knowledge generation with power-sharing, adaptive co-management (ACM) provides a potential solution to resolving complex social-ecological problems. In this paper we evaluate ACM as a mechanism for resolving conservation conflict using a case study in Scotland, where seal and salmon fishery stakeholders have opposing and entrenched objectives. ACM emerged in 2002, successfully resolving this long-standing conflict. Applying evaluation approaches from the literature, in 2011 we interviewed stakeholders to characterise the evolution of ACM, and factors associated with its success over 10 years. In common with other ACM cases, triggers for the process were shifts in slow variables controlling the system (seal and salmon abundance, public perceptions of seal shooting), and exogenous shocks (changes in legal mandates, a seal disease outbreak). Also typical of ACM, three phases of evolution were evident: emerging local leadership preparing the system for change, a policy window of opportunity, and stakeholder partnerships building the resilience of the system. Parameters maintaining ACM were legal mechanisms and structures, legal power held by government, and the willingness of all stakeholders to reach a compromise and experiment with an alternative governance approach. Results highlighted the critical role of government power and support in resolving conservation conflict, which may constrain the extent of local stakeholder-driven ACM. The evaluation also demonstrated how, following perceived success, the trajectory of ACM has shifted to a 'stakeholder apathy' phase, with declining leadership, knowledge exchange, stakeholder engagement, and system resilience. We discuss remedial actions required to revive the process, and the importance of long term government resourcing and alternative financing schemes for successful conflict resolution. Based on the results we present a generic indicator framework and participatory method for the longitudinal evaluation of ACM applied to conservation conflict resolution.

ABSTRACT1. Within the Moray Firth, north-east Scotland, there is a history of conflict between seals and salmon fisheries. Under the UK's Conservation of Seals Act 1970 (CoSA) seals are shot to protect fisheries. In 1999 six rivers in the Moray Firth were designated as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) for Atlantic salmon under the EU Habitats Directive, and in 2000 an SAC for harbour seals was designated in the Dornoch Firth.2. In the 1990s salmon stocks declined. Fisheries managers believed the decline was partly caused by seal predation and consequently increased shooting effort. In years 1993-2003 Moray Firth harbour seal numbers declined possibly due to shooting, posing a potential threat to the status of the Dornoch Firth SAC. Meanwhile wildlife tourism based on marine mammals has increased. The declines in salmon and harbour seals, and the implementation of the Habitats Directive forced a watershed in the approach of statutory authorities to managing seals, salmon and tourism.3. In years 2002-2005 local District Salmon Fishery Boards, the Scottish Executive, Scottish Natural Heritage and stakeholders negotiated a pilot Moray Firth Seal Management Plan to restore the favourable conservation status of seal and salmon SACs, and to reduce shooting of harbour seals and seal predation on salmon.4. Key facets of the plan are the management of the Moray Firth region under a CoSA Conservation Order; application of the Potential Biological Removal concept to identify a limit of seals to be killed; management areas where removal of seals is targeted to protect salmon, while avoiding seal pupping and tourism sites; a training and reporting system for marksmen; a research programme, and a framework allowing an annual review of the plan.5. The plan was introduced in April 2005. A maximum limit of 60 harbour and 70 grey seals was set. Forty-six harbour and 33 grey seals were killed in 2005 while in 2006 these figures were 16 and 42 respectively. Although the numbers killed were below the maximum limits in both years the returns raised questions about the plan's ability to manage seal shooting at netting stations. The plan provides a useful adaptive co-management framework for balancing seal and salmon conservation with the protection of fisheries and/or fish farms and tourism for application in the UK and internationally.

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