To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045. Methods: A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20-79 years. Results: The global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than lowincome countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to

The new estimates of diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes and healthcare expenditure due to diabetes present a large social, financial and health system burden across the world.

Diabetes and its complications have a significant economic impact on individuals and their families, health systems and national economies. Methods: The direct health expenditure of diabetes was calculated relying on the following inputs: diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes prevalence estimates, United Nations population estimates, World Health Organization health expenditure per capita and ratios of health expenditure for people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. Results: The estimated global direct health expenditure on diabetes in 2019 is USD 760 billion and is expected to grow to a projected USD 825 billion by 2030 and USD 845 billion by 2045. There is a wide variation in annual health expenditures on diabetes. The United States of America has the highest estimated expenditure with USD 294.6 billion, followed by China and Brazil, with USD 109.0 billion and USD 52.3 billion, respectively. The age group with the largest annual diabetes-related health expenditure is 60-69 years with USD 177.7 billion, followed by 50-59 years, and 70-79 years with USD 173.0 billion and USD 171.5 billion, respectively. Slightly higher diabetes-related health expenditure is seen in women than in men (USD 382.6 billion vs. USD 377.6 billion, respectively). The same difference is expected to be present in 2030 and 2045.

Mortality Global Regional International Diabetes Federation A B S T R A C T Aims: To estimate the number of deaths attributable to diabetes in 20-79-year-old adults in 2019. Methods: The following were used to estimate the number of deaths attributable to diabetes: all-cause mortality estimates from the World Health Organization life table, country level age-and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence in 2019 and relative risks of death in people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. Results: An estimated 4.2 million deaths among 20-79-year-old adults are attributable todiabetes. Diabetes is estimated to contribute to 11.3% of deaths globally, ranging from 6.8% (lowest) in the Africa Region to 16.2% (highest) in the Middle East and North Africa.About half (46.2%) of the deaths attributable to diabetes occur in people under the age of 60 years. The Africa Region has the highest (73.1%) proportion of deaths attributable to diabetes in people under the age of 60 years, while the Europe Region has the lowest (31.4%). Conclusions: Diabetes is estimated to contribute to one in nine deaths among adults aged 20-79 years. Prevention of diabetes and its complications is essential, particularly in middle-income countries, where the current impact is estimated to be the largest. Contemporary data from diverse populations are needed to validate these estimates.

The main aims are: (a) to draw attention to the nature and pattern of recent global and regional prevalence estimates and projections of diabetes in older adults (65-99 years), and (b) to describe the societal health implications of these changes on a global scale. Methods: Diabetes prevalences and projections were estimated using a logistic regression method to generate smoothed age-and sex-specific prevalence estimates for 5-year age groups. Results: In 2019, it is estimated that 19.3% of people aged 65-99 years (135.6 million, 95% CI: 107.6-170.6 million) live with diabetes. It is projected that the number of people older than 65 years (65-99 years) with diabetes will reach 195.2 million by 2030 and 276.2 million by 2045. For the regional distribution, the highest prevalence in 2019 being the North America and Caribbean Region at 27.0%. Countries with the highest number of people older than 65 years with diabetes are China, the United States of America and India. Conclusions: There is a need for more data from national and regional sources on those aged 65 years and over, but the prevailing evidence points to diabetes being a considerable global chronic illness burden in ageing societies.