The presence of an atmosphere over sufficiently long timescales is widely perceived as one of the most prominent criteria associated with planetary surface habitability. We address the crucial question of whether the seven Earth-sized planets transiting the recently discovered ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 are capable of retaining their atmospheres. To this effect, we carry out numerical simulations to characterize the stellar wind of TRAPPIST-1 and the atmospheric ion escape rates for all of the seven planets. We also estimate the escape rates analytically and demonstrate that they are in good agreement with the numerical results. We conclude that the outer planets of the TRAPPIST-1 system are capable of retaining their atmospheres over billion-year timescales. The consequences arising from our results are also explored in the context of abiogenesis, biodiversity, and searches for future exoplanets. In light of the many unknowns and assumptions involved, we recommend that these conclusions must be interpreted with due caution.

Mercury's comparatively weak intrinsic magnetic field and its close proximity to the Sun lead to a magnetosphere that undergoes more direct space‐weathering interactions than other planets. A unique aspect of Mercury's interaction system arises from the large ratio of the scale of the planet to the scale of the magnetosphere and the presence of a large‐size core composed of highly conducting material. Consequently, there is strong feedback between the planetary interior and the magnetosphere, especially under conditions of strong external forcing. Understanding the coupled solar wind‐magnetosphere‐interior interaction at Mercury requires not only analysis of observations but also a modeling framework that is both comprehensive and inclusive. We have developed a new global MHD model for Mercury in which the planetary interior is modeled as layers of different electrical conductivities that electromagnetically couple to the surrounding plasma environment. This new modeling capability allows us to characterize the dynamical response of Mercury to time‐varying external conditions in a self‐consistent manner. Comparison of our model results with observations by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft shows that the model provides a reasonably good representation of the global magnetosphere. To demonstrate the capability to model induction effects, we have performed idealized simulations in which Mercury's magnetosphere is impacted by a solar wind pressure enhancement. Our results show that due to the induction effect, Mercury's core exerts strong global influences on the way Mercury responds to changes in the external environment, including modifying the global magnetospheric structure and affecting the extent to which the solar wind directly impacts the surface. The global MHD model presented here represents a crucial step toward establishing a modeling framework that enables self‐consistent characterization of Mercury's tightly coupled planetary interior‐magnetosphere system.

The Jovian moon, Europa, hosts a thin neutral gas atmosphere, which is tightly coupled to Jupiter's magnetosphere. Magnetospheric ions impacting the surface sputter off neutral atoms, which, upon ionization, carry currents that modify the magnetic field around the moon. The magnetic field in the plasma is also affected by Europa's induced magnetic field. In this paper we investigate the environment of Europa using our multifluid MHD model and focus on the effects introduced by both the magnetospheric and the pickup ion populations. The model self‐consistently derives the electron temperature that governs the electron impact ionization process, which is the major source of ionization in this environment. The resulting magnetic field is compared to measurements performed by the Galileo magnetometer, the bulk properties of the modeled thermal plasma population is compared to the Galileo Plasma Subsystem observations, and the modeled surface precipitation fluxes are compared to Galileo Ultraviolet Spectrometer observations. The model shows good agreement with the measured magnetic field and reproduces the basic features of the plasma interaction observed at the moon for both the E4 and the E26 flybys of the Galileo spacecraft. The simulation also produces perturbations asymmetric about the flow direction that account for observed asymmetries.

The acceleration of protons and electrons to high (sometimes GeV/nucleon) energies by solar phenomena is a key component of space weather. These solar energetic particle (SEP) events can damage spacecraft and communications, as well as present radiation hazards to humans. In-depth particle acceleration simulations have been performed for idealized magnetic fields for diffusive acceleration and particle propagation, and at the same time the quality of MHD simulations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has improved significantly. However, to date these two pieces of the same puzzle have remained largely decoupled. Such structures may contain not just a shock but also sizable sheath and pileup compression regions behind it, and may vary considerably with longitude and latitude based on the underlying coronal conditions. In this work, we have coupled results from a detailed global three-dimensional MHD time-dependent CME simulation to a global proton acceleration and transport model, in order to study time-dependent effects of SEP acceleration between 1.8 and 8 solar radii in the 2005 May 13 CME. We find that the source population is accelerated to at least 100 MeV, with distributions enhanced up to six orders of magnitude. Acceleration efficiency varies strongly along field lines probing different regions of the dynamically evolving CME, whose dynamics is influenced by the large-scale coronal magnetic field structure. We observe strong acceleration in sheath regions immediately behind the shock.

We perform a validation study of the latest version of the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AW-SoM) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). To do so, we compare the simulation results of the model with a comprehensive suite of observations for Carrington rotations representative of the solar minimum conditions extending from the solar corona to the heliosphere up to the Earth. In the low corona (r < 1.25 R ), we compare with EUV images from both STEREO-A/EUVI and SDO/AIA and to three-dimensional (3-D) tomographic reconstructions of the electron temperature and density based on these same data. We also compare the model to tomographic reconstructions of the electron density from SOHO/LASCO observations (2.55 < r < 6.0R ). In the heliosphere, we compare model predictions of solar wind speed with velocity reconstructions from InterPlanetary Scintillation (IPS) observations. For comparison with observations near the Earth, we use OMNI data. Our results show that the improved AWSoM model performs well in quantitative agreement with the observations between the inner corona and 1 AU. The model now reproduces the fast solar wind speed in the polar regions. Near the Earth, our model shows good agreement with observations of solar wind velocity, proton temperature and density. AWSoM offers an extensive application to study the solar corona and larger heliosphere in concert with current and future solar missions as well as being well suited for space weather predictions.

The history and present state of large-scale magnetohydrodynamic modeling of the solar corona and the solar wind with steady or quasi-steady coronal physics is reviewed. We put the evolution of ideas leading to the recognition of the existence of an expanding solar atmosphere into historical context. The development and main features of the first generation of global corona and solar wind models are described in detail. This historical perspective is also applied to the present suite of global corona and solar wind models. We discuss the evolution of new ideas and their implementation into numerical simulation codes. We point out the scientific and computational challenges facing these models and discuss the ways various groups tried to overcome these challenges. Next, we discuss the latest, state-of-the art models and point to the expected next steps in modeling the corona and the interplanetary medium.

The ground-based magnetometer index of Dst is a commonly used measure of near-Earth current systems, in particular the storm time inner magnetospheric current systems. The ability of a large-scale, physics-based model to reproduce, or even predict, this index is therefore a tangible measure of the overall validity of the code for space weather research and space weather operational usage. Experimental real-time simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) are conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Presently, two configurations of the SWMF are running in real time at CCMC, both focusing on the geospace modules, using the Block Adaptive Tree Solar wind-type Roe Upwind Solver magnetohydrodynamic model, the Ridley Ionosphere Model, and with and without the Rice Convection Model. While both have been running for several years, nearly continuous results are available since April 2015. A 27-month interval through July 2017 is used for a quantitative assessment of Dst from the model output compared against the Kyoto real-time Dst. Quantitative measures are presented to assess the goodness of fit including contingency tables and a receiver operating characteristic curve. It is shown that the SWMF run with the inner magnetosphere model is much better at reproducing storm time values, with a correlation coefficient of 0.69, a prediction efficiency of 0.41, and Heidke skill score of 0.57 (for a À50-nT threshold). A comparison of real-time runs with and without the inner magnetospheric drift physics model reveals that nearly all of the storm time Dst signature is from current systems related to kinetic processes on closed magnetic field lines.Plain Language Summary As society becomes more dependent on technologies susceptible to adverse space weather, it is becoming increasingly critical to have numerical models capable of running in real time to nowcast/forecast the conditions in the near-Earth space environment. One such model is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center and has been running for several years, allowing for an assessment of the quality of the result. Comparisons are made against globally compiled index of near-Earth space storm activity, including numerous statistical quantities and tests. The skill of the model is remarkable, especially when a few hours after each of the cold restarts of the model are removed from the comparison. It is also shown that a global model alone is not that good at reproducing this storm index; a regional model for the inner part of geospace is necessary for good data-model agreement.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a dramatic manifestation of solar activity that release vast amounts of plasma into the heliosphere, and have many effects on the interplanetary medium and on planetary atmospheres, and are the major driver of space weather. CMEs occur with the formation and expulsion of large-scale magnetic flux ropes from the solar corona, which are routinely observed in interplanetary space. Simulating and predicting the structure and dynamics of these interplanetary CME magnetic fields are essential to the progress of heliospheric science and space weather prediction. We discuss the simulation of the 13 May 2005 CME event in which we follow the propagation of a flux rope from the solar corona to beyond Earth orbit. In simulating this event, we find that the magnetic flux rope reconnects with the interplanetary magnetic field, to evolve to an open configuration and later reconnects to reform a twisted structure sunward of the original rope. Observations of the 13 May 2005 CME magnetic field near Earth suggest that such a rearrangement of magnetic flux by reconnection may have occurred.