We present a new global model of the solar corona, including the low corona, the transition region and the top of chromosphere. The realistic 3D magnetic field is simulated using the data from the photospheric magnetic field measurements. The distinctive feature of the new model is incorporating the MHD Alfven wave turbulence. We assume this turbulence and its non-linear dissipation to be the only momentum and energy source for heating the coronal plasma and driving the solar wind. The difference between the turbulence dissipation efficiency in coronal holes and that in closed field regions is because the non-linear cascade rate degrades in strongly anisotropic (imbalanced) turbulence in coronal holes (no inward propagating wave), thus resulting in colder coronal holes with the bi-modal solar wind originating from them. The detailed presentation of the theoretical model is illustrated with the synthetic images for multi-wavelength EUV emission compared with the observations from SDO AIA and Stereo EUVI instruments for the Carrington rotation 2107.

Multiple coronal and heliospheric models have been recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. To investigate the effects of photospheric magnetograms from different sources, different coronal models, and different model versions on the model performance, we run these models in 10 combinations. Choosing seven Carrington rotations in 2007 as the time window, we compare the modeling results with the Operating Mission as Nodes on the Internet data for near-Earth space environment during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Visual comparison is proved to be a necessary addition to the quantitative assessment of the models' capabilities in reproducing the time series and statistics of solar wind parameters. The MAS-Enlil model captures the time patterns of solar wind parameters better, while the WSA-Enlil model matches with the time series of normalized solar wind parameters better. Models generally overestimate slow wind temperature and underestimate fast wind temperature and magnetic field. Using improved algorithms, we have identified magnetic field sector boundaries (SBs) and slow-to-fast stream interaction regions (SIRs) as focused structures. The success rate of capturing them and the time offset vary largely with models. For this quiet period, the new version of MAS-Enlil model works best for SBs, while heliospheric tomography works best for SIRs. The new version of SWMF with more physics added needs more development. General strengths and weaknesses for each model are diagnosed to provide an unbiased reference to model developers and users. MotivationWe are motivated to validate the coronal and heliospheric models for the quasi-steady solar wind from the following three respects. First, a stream interaction region (SIR) forms when fast wind overtakes and interacts with the proceeding slow wind. It is in nature the same as the commonly known corotating interaction region [e.g., Smith and Wolfe, 1976;Gosling and Pizzo, 1999]. However, we use SIRs to emphasize that when the solar background changes within one Carrington rotation (CR), the resultant SIRs are short lived and do not corotate with the Sun to recur. In fact, Jian et al. [2006, 2011a] find 51% of SIRs near solar maximum and 10% at solar minimum do not recur at Earth. Large-amplitude Alfvén waves [Belcher and Davis, 1971] in SIRs and the following fast wind can drive a series of particle injections and affect the evolution of outer radiation belt (centered at about 4 R E ), as demonstrated in Miyoshi and Kataoka [2005]. Additionally, in geomagnetic storms, a large amount of energy is transferred from the solar wind into the magnetosphere and eventually dissipated in the thermosphere (about 90-600 km aboveground) and ionosphere (about 60-1000 km aboveground) by Joule heating and auroral precipitation [e.g., Gonzal...

Accurate space weather forecasting requires knowledge of the trajectory of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), including any deflections close to the Sun or through interplanetary space. Kay et al. (2013) introduced ForeCAT, a model of CME deflection resulting from the background solar magnetic field. For a magnetic field solution corresponding to Carrington Rotation (CR) 2029 (declining phase, April-May 2005), the majority of the CMEs deflected to the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS), the minimum in magnetic pressure on global scales. Most of the deflection occurred below 4 R . Here we extend ForeCAT to include a three dimensional description of the deflecting CME. We attempt to answer the following questions: a) Do all CMEs deflect to the magnetic minimum? and b) Does most deflection occur within the first few solar radii ( 4 R )? Results for solar minimum and declining phase CMEs show that not every CME deflects to the magnetic minimum and that the deflection is typically determined below 2 R . Slow, wide, low mass CMEs in declining phase solar backgrounds with strong magnetic field and magnetic gradients exhibit the largest deflections. Local gradients related to active regions tend to cause the largest deviations from the deflection predicted by global magnetic gradients, but variations can also be seen for CMEs in the quiet sun regions of the declining phase CR. We show the torques due to differential forces along the CME can cause rotation about the CME's toroidal axis.

To predict whether a coronal mass ejection (CME) will impact Earth, the effects of the background on the CME's trajectory must be taken into account. We develop a model, ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory), of CME deflection due to magnetic forces. ForeCAT includes CME expansion, a three-part propagation model, and the effects of drag on the CME's deflection.Given the background solar wind conditions, the launch site of the CME, and the properties of the CME (mass, final propagation speed, initial radius, and initial magnetic strength), ForeCAT predicts the deflection of the CME. Two different magnetic backgrounds are considered: a scaled background based on type II radio burst profiles and a Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) background. For a scaled background where the CME is launched from an active region located between a CH and streamer region the strong magnetic gradients cause a deflection of 8.1 • in latitude and 26.4 • in longitude for a 10 15 g CME propagating out to 1 AU. Using the PFSS background, which captures the variation of the streamer belt position with height, leads to a deflection of 1.6 • in latitude and 4.1 • in longitude for the control case. Varying the CME's input parameters within observed ranges leads to the majority of CMEs reaching the streamer belt within the first few solar radii. For these specific backgrounds, the streamer belt acts like a potential well that forces the CME into an equilibrium angular position.Recent observational studies show that CMEs can undergo strong deflections close