We present a framework for explaining variation in predator invasion success and predator impacts on native prey that integrates information about predator–prey naïveté, predator and prey behavioral responses to each other, consumptive and non‐consumptive effects of predators on prey, and interacting effects of multiple species interactions. We begin with the ‘naïve prey’ hypothesis that posits that naïve, native prey that lack evolutionary history with non‐native predators suffer heavy predation because they exhibit ineffective antipredator responses to novel predators. Not all naïve prey, however, show ineffective antipredator responses to novel predators. To explain variation in prey response to novel predators, we focus on the interaction between prey use of general versus specific cues and responses, and the functional similarity of non‐native and native predators. Effective antipredator responses reduce predation rates (reduce consumptive effects of predators, CEs), but often also carry costs that result in non‐consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators. We contrast expected CEs versus NCEs for non‐native versus native predators, and discuss how differences in the relative magnitudes of CEs and NCEs might influence invasion dynamics. Going beyond the effects of naïve prey, we discuss how the ‘naïve prey’, ‘enemy release’ and ‘evolution of increased competitive ability’ (EICA) hypotheses are inter‐related, and how the importance of all three might be mediated by prey and predator naïveté. These ideas hinge on the notion that non‐native predators enjoy a ‘novelty advantage’ associated with the naïveté of native prey and top predators. However, non‐native predators could instead suffer from a novelty disadvantage because they are also naïve to their new prey and potential predators. We hypothesize that patterns of community similarity and evolution might explain the variation in novelty advantage that can underlie variation in invasion outcomes. Finally, we discuss management implications of our framework, including suggestions for managing invasive predators, predator reintroductions and biological control.

Predator effects on prey dynamics are conventionally studied by measuring changes in prey abundance attributed to consumption by predators. We revisit four classic examples of predator-prey systems often cited in textbooks and incorporate subsequent studies of nonconsumptive effects of predators (NCE), defined as changes in prey traits (e.g., behavior, growth, development) measured on an ecological time scale. Our review revealed that NCE were integral to explaining lynx-hare population dynamics in boreal forests, cascading effects of top predators in Wisconsin lakes, and cascading effects of killer whales and sea otters on kelp forests in nearshore marine habitats. The relative roles of consumption and NCE of wolves on moose and consequent indirect effects on plant communities of Isle Royale depended on climate oscillations. Nonconsumptive effects have not been explicitly tested to explain the link between planktonic alewives and the size structure of the zooplankton, nor have they been invoked to attribute keystone predator status in intertidal communities or elsewhere. We argue that both consumption and intimidation contribute to the total effects of keystone predators, and that characteristics of keystone consumers may differ from those of predators having predominantly NCE. Nonconsumptive effects are often considered as an afterthought to explain observations inconsistent with consumption-based theory. Consequently, NCE with the same sign as consumptive effects may be overlooked, even though they can affect the magnitude, rate, or scale of a prey response to predation and can have important management or conservation implications. Nonconsumptive effects may underlie other classic paradigms in ecology, such as delayed density dependence and predator-mediated prey coexistence. Revisiting classic studies enriches our understanding of predator-prey dynamics and provides compelling rationale for ramping up efforts to consider how NCE affect traditional predator-prey models based on consumption, and to compare the relative magnitude of consumptive and NCE of predators.

Many animals exhibit behavioural syndromes-consistent individual differences in behaviour across two or more contexts or situations. Here, we present adaptive, state-dependent mathematical models for analysing issues about behavioural syndromes. We find that asset protection (where individuals with more 'assets' tend be more cautious) and starvation avoidance, two state-dependent mechanisms, can explain short-term behavioural consistency, but not long-term stable behavioural types (BTs). These negative-feedback mechanisms tend to produce convergence in state and behaviour over time. In contrast, a positive-feedback mechanism, state-dependent safety (where individuals with higher energy reserves, size, condition or vigour are better at coping with predators), can explain stable differences in personality over the long term. The relative importance of negative-and positive-feedback mechanisms in governing behavioural consistency depends on environmental conditions (predation risk and resource availability). Behavioural syndromes emerge more readily in conditions of intermediate ecological favourability (e.g. medium risk and medium resources, or high risk and resources, or low risk and resources). Under these conditions, individuals with higher initial state maintain a tendency to be bolder than individuals that start with low initial state; i.e. later BT is determined by state during an early 'developmental window'. In contrast, when conditions are highly favourable (low risk, high resources) or highly unfavourable (high risk, low resources), individuals converge to be all relatively bold or all relatively cautious, respectively. In those circumstances, initial differences in BT are not maintained over the long term, and there is no early developmental window where initial state governs later BT. The exact range of ecological conditions favouring behavioural syndromes depends also on the strength of state-dependent safety.

Phenotypic plasticity is a key factor for the success of organisms in heterogeneous environments. Although many forms of phenotypic plasticity can be induced and retracted repeatedly, few extant models have analyzed conditions for the evolution of reversible plasticity. We present a general model of reversible plasticity to examine how plastic shifts in the mode and breadth of environmental tolerance functions (that determine relative fitness) depend on time lags in response to environmental change, the pattern of individual exposure to inducing and noninducing environments, and the quality of available information about the environment. We couched the model in terms of prey-induced responses to variable predation regimes. With longer response lags relative to the rate of environmental change, the modes of tolerance functions in both the presence or absence of predators converge on a generalist strategy that lies intermediate between the optimal functions for the two environments in the absence of response lags. Incomplete information about the level of predation risk in inducing environments causes prey to have broader tolerance functions even at the cost of reduced maximal fitness. We give a detailed analysis of how these factors and interactions among them select for joint patterns of mode and breadth plasticity.

Indirect effects, in which one species affects another through an intermediate species, can occur by changes in either the density or the traits of the intermediate species.Ecologists have focused primarily on density-mediated indirect effects, but have become interested in quantifying the relative sizes of trait-and density-mediated indirect effects. We examined how state-dependent prey behavior and experimental protocols affect the sizes of measured trait-and density-mediated indirect effects in a three-species chain (predator, prey, and resource). We found that the size of trait-mediated indirect effects relative to the size of density-mediated indirect effects increases as the level of resources increases. We also found that the relative contributions of trait-and density-mediated indirect effects depend on the timing of manipulations in relation to the state of individuals and their vulnerability to predators. In addition, we found that trait-mediated indirect effects that have been measured during a portion of a season may diminish or disappear when measured across a whole season because of behavioral compensation. These results show that the relative contributions of trait-and density-mediated indirect effects in a system will be variable, and experiments need to be designed to account for dynamic systems.