We investigated the potential for using mark–recapture models to estimate abundance of bottlenose dolphin populations in open systems (e.g., bays, estuaries). A major challenge in these systems is that immigration and emigration occur during sampling, thus violating one of the most basic assumptions of mark–recapture models. We assumed that dolphins using our study site were composed of both residents (those that used the study area almost exclusively during our study), and transients (those that passed through our study area but did not remain long), and examined several mark–recapture estimators for their ability to accurately and precisely estimate the abundance of residents and the superpopulation (i.e., residents + transients). Using simulated data, we found that a novel approach accounting for transients resulted in estimators with less bias, smaller absolute relative error, and confidence interval coverage closer to nominal than other approaches, but this novel approach required intensive sampling and that the “correct” transient pattern be specified. In contrast, classical mark–recapture estimators for closed populations often overestimated the number of residents and underestimated the superpopulation. Using photo‐identification records, a model‐averaged estimate of the superpopulation of bottlenose dolphins in and around Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida was 232 (SE = 13) animals. We estimated resident abundance at 179 (SE = 8), which was lower than the number of unique animals we encountered (188). Our results appear promising for developing monitoring programs for bottlenose dolphins and other taxa in open systems. Our estimators should prove useful to wildlife managers who wish to base conservation decisions on estimates of the number of animals that reside primarily in their study or management area. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.

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Abstract-The adjacency of 2 marine biogeographic regions off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina (NC), and the proximity of the Gulf Stream result in a high biodiversity of species from northern and southern provinces and from coastal and pelagic habitats. We examined spatiotemporal patterns of marine mammal strandings and evidence of human interaction for these strandings along NC shorelines and evaluated whether the spatiotemporal patterns and species diversity of the stranded animals reflected published records of populations in NC waters.

A marked increase in the frequency of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) stranded in North Carolina in 2005 was declared as an Unusual Mortality Event (UME). Strandings occurred in January through May when harbor porpoises are seasonally present. Increased stranding rates were measured relative to a threshold to determine that the UME was occurring. The threshold analysis also revealed elevated strandings during 1999, an undeclared UME year. Recovered carcasses during 1999 and 2005 accounted for 39% of 261 strandings during 1997–2009. During 2005, of 43 strandings, primary or secondary causes of mortality included fishery interactions, emaciation, and interspecific aggression. Apart from small but significant differences in timing and condition of strandings, composition of strandings during UME and non-UME years was similar, with most being young-of-the-year and occurring during March and April, north of Cape Hatteras. Porpoises had high levels of parasitic infestation typical for this species. However, no indication of infectious disease and no cause of the 2005 event were found from gross and histologic findings. Response to UMEs is challenging, particularly along the expanses of North Carolina beaches, requiring additional effort to obtain carcasses in sufficiently fresh condition to determine the cause of these events.