No abstract

This paper investigates the generation of ground impact probability maps for UAVs in case of failure during the flight. Such maps are of a huge interest for risk assessment of UAV operations and can be used both for offline mission preparation or analysis and online decision making. Two approaches are proposed in this paper to generate such maps, taking into account a dynamical model a fixed-wing UAV and wind conditions. The first one relies on the generation of a complete database by Monte Carlo simulations. The second one is based on neural network surrogate models obtained by supervised learning using this database. Computation time required by the second approach is very small and compatible with online use. The two approaches are presented and discussed, and examples of ground impact probability maps generated are provided.

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This paper addresses the estimation of accurate extreme ground impact footprints and probabilistic maps due to a total loss of control of fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles after a main engine failure. In this paper, we focus on the ground impact footprints that contains 95%, 99% and 99.9% of the drone impacts. These regions are defined here with density minimum volume sets and may be estimated by Monte Carlo methods. As Monte Carlo approaches lead to an underestimation of extreme ground impact footprints, we consider in this article multiple importance sampling to evaluate them. Then, we perform a reliability oriented sensitivity analysis, to estimate the most influential uncertain parameters on the ground impact position. We show the results of these estimations on a realistic drone flight scenario.