Analysis of the All-India summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall for the period 1871 to 1978 has been made in order to understand the interannual and long-term variability of the monsoon. On a country level, India receives 85.31 cm mean monsoon rainfall which is 78% of the annual rainfall. The coefficient of variation of monsoon rainfall at the country level is 9.5%. The highest and lowest rainfall country level were observed in the years 1961 and 1877 respectively, the range being 41 cm about 48% of the long term average. There are 13/9 years of large-scale deficit/excess in the 108-yr period. There is a continuous rise in the 10-yr mean rainfall from 1899 to 1953. There are four major climatic rainfall periods in the series. Correlogram and spectrum analysis showed significant 14-yr and 2.8-yr cycles respectively in 108-yr series; however detailed exam:mation indicated that these cycles have developed during the last 30 yr of the data period.
Long-term changes in the Indian monsoon rainfall on regional and local scales have important social and economic consequences. To present a comprehensive picture of such changes, the monthly rainfall data at 306 stations, well spread over India, have been analysed over 114 years (1871-1984), for long-term trends. The trends are quantified by linear trend for monthly as well as seasonal rainfall for each station. Some broad contiguous areas showing statistically significant trends have been identified. Areas of increasing trend in the monsoon seasonal rainfall are found along the west coast, north Andhra Pradesh and north-west India, and those of decreasing trend over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas, north-east India and parts of Gujarat and Kerala.The subseasonal patterns indicate that the excess or deficiency of the monsoon rainfall is more frequently realized in the later half of the season. Monsoon rainfall tends to be more concentrated in August, over the west coast and central India.
Abnormalities in the performance of the Indian summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall, which provides 75-90 per cent of annual rainfall, have been studied during the period 1871 to 1984 over different meteorological subdivisions into which the country has been divided. Long homogeneous monsoon rainfall series of 29 subdivisions, prepared on the basis of a constant 306 rain gauges, have been tabulated for the users in view of their great importance. The criterion adopted in identification of droughtlflood over a subdivision is the percentage of rainfall departures from normal, as officially used in the India Meteorological Department.The worst drought years were
Association between the all-India summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall and an index of the Southern Oscillation (SO) is studied in relation to the vagaries of the monsoon rainfall and the seasonal characteristics of the SO. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) used is the difference of normalized sea surface pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, two stations located in the core regions of the circulation systems associated with the SO. The data length of 46 years from 1935 to 1980 is used in the detailed examination of the nature of association between these parameters.The SO1 values of different months and standard seasons show opposite tendencies during deficient and excess years of all-India monsoon rainfall. The correlation coefficients (CC) between the all-India monsoon rainfall series and the SOIs of summer monsoon (JJA), autumn (SON) and winter (DJF) minus spring (MAM) seasons are significant at the 1 per cent level. The correlations have been examined by dividing the series into two equal halves of 23 years and different sliding window widths of 10, 20 and 30 years. The least squares fit line is represented by the equation y (all-India monsoon rainfall) = 85.9 -2 . 7~ (DJF minus MAM, SOI), the variance explained by this line is about 13 per cent. In view of the large spatial variability of the summer monsoon rainfall the correlations are examined for the rainfall series of various meteorological subdivisions of the country. The CC between the monsoon rainfall of the subdivisions north of 16"N and west of 80"E and the SO1 series of DJF minus MAM is significant at the 5 per cent level or above.Potentialities of the SO1 of DJF minus MAM, an important premonsoon circulation parameter, are examined for the seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and the limitations of single parameter prediction models are discussed.
Since the 1980s, the changing character of the Indian state has allowed it to move away from a highly regulated, autarkic development model to pursue lighter regulation and closer integration with the global economy. This move created the incentives for India‚s emergence as a leading software exporter. Within India, Bangalore emerged as the leading software–producing region and the large number of domestic and foreign firms there has led to popular references to it as India‚s Silicon Valley. This essay, however, argues that referring to Bangalore as Silicon Valley‚s India is more appropriate, as it struggles to transform itself from a region that develops software for global markets to one that defines new products and technologies. Driving the growth of the Indian software industry is the export of labour–intensive services, while the relatively small and slow–growing domestic market has limited the nurturing of original ideas. The essay explains the limitations in terms of social constraints on the state despite its changed character. The analysis of how changing state–society relations have shaped the software industry in Bangalore provides a means of addressing debates on the importance of social embeddedness in agglomeration and late industrialization in newly industrializing countries.
Depuis les années 1980 et le changement de nature de l'Etat indien, ce dernier s'éloigne d'un modèle de développement autarcique très réglementé, allant vers un contrô le allégé et une intégration plus étroite à l'économie mondiale. Cette évolution a suscité des mesures d'incitation favorisant l'émergence de l'Inde comme premier exportateur de logiciels. Dans le pays, c'est la région de Bangalore qui est en tête de la production de logiciels, et la concentration d'entreprises nationales et étrangères y est connue sous le nom de `Silicon Valley indienne'. Pourtant, `l'Inde de la Silicon Valley' conviendrait mieux, puisque la région s'efforce de passer du développement de logiciels destinés à des marchés mondiaux à la définition de nouveaux produits et technologies. La dynamique du secteur indien des logiciels tient a` l'exportation de services demandeurs de main‐d'uvre, tandis que le marché intérieur, relativement restreint et à croissance lente, a limité les sources d'idées originales. L'article explique les limitations en termes de contraintes sociales sur l'Etat malgré sa nouvelle nature. Analyser comment les relations Etat‐société et leur évolution ont modelé l'industrie des logiciels à Bangalore permet ainsi d'aborder le débat sur l'importance de l'intégration sociale dans une agglomération et une industrialisation tardive propres aux pays d'industrie récente.
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