[1] The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during the period 1958 -1998 show a positive trend in the 100 hPa zonal wind, decrease in the strength of Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) during the summer monsoon period of June through September. This is confirmed by the Radiosonde data. The number of observed Tropical Cyclonic Systems (TCS) over Bay of Bengal during the same period shows a decreasing trend. There is a strong negative correlation (À0.549 for the period 1958 -1998, 41 years, significant at 99.9% level by a two sided student t test) between the strength of TEJ and the number of Bay of Bengal TCS. This result has potential for long-range prediction of TCS, which is vital for the prediction of monsoon rainfall.
Recent studies showed that the Himalayan glaciers are reducing alarmingly. This is attributed to global warming. Since the melt water of Himalayan glaciers and snow is the principal source of water for several rivers, a decrease of this source is a calamity for the large fraction of global population living in nearby regions such as India. In Asia for the 60% global population only 36% of global water is available. Any further decrease of this vital necessity makes the very existence of billions of people doubtful. Here we show, using both observations and one IPCC-AR4 model with high horizontal resolution, that the Himalayan region in fact underwent a maximum warming of 2.5˚C from 1950 to 1999 and would reach the highest temperature rise of 9˚C in 2100. Temperature and rainfall variations determine a simple climate classification proposed by Köppen. We show changes that occur in climate and biosphere using this classification. Also we discussed the impact of warming and resulting changes in Köppen climates on the floods and malaria in India.
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