Recent studies showed that the Himalayan glaciers are reducing alarmingly. This is attributed to global warming. Since the melt water of Himalayan glaciers and snow is the principal source of water for several rivers, a decrease of this source is a calamity for the large fraction of global population living in nearby regions such as India. In Asia for the 60% global population only 36% of global water is available. Any further decrease of this vital necessity makes the very existence of billions of people doubtful. Here we show, using both observations and one IPCC-AR4 model with high horizontal resolution, that the Himalayan region in fact underwent a maximum warming of 2.5˚C from 1950 to 1999 and would reach the highest temperature rise of 9˚C in 2100. Temperature and rainfall variations determine a simple climate classification proposed by Köppen. We show changes that occur in climate and biosphere using this classification. Also we discussed the impact of warming and resulting changes in Köppen climates on the floods and malaria in India.
We studied the interannual variability of the beginning, end and duration of South American monsoon system (SAMS) for the period 1956-2006. The mean beginning date was 10 October, whereas the mean end date was 6 April, and the mean duration was 174 days. The beginning of SAMS showed a tendency to start earlier and the end date showed a tendency to delay; thus, the duration of SAMS showed a tendency to increase by about 7 days in 10 years. We found that the beginning and end dates of SAMS have significant positive correlation with sea surface temperature (SST) of an earlier period at southwest Africa in the South Atlantic Ocean. This suggests the potential of SST in the prediction of the beginning and end dates of SAMS.
Variações do ciclo anual da Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) do Pacífico Tropical entre 20ºN e 20ºS, para o período de 1854 a 2006, foram estudadas usando análises de ondaletas. O estudo mostrou que o ciclo anual, considerando-se a variância para em torno de 1 ano, de TSM possui variabilidade interanual e interdecenal. Existem indicações de que a maior parte das variações interanuais no ciclo anual de TSM das áreas do hemisfério Norte (HN) e do hemisfério Sul (HS), está relacionada ao ciclo do El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS). A maioria dos picos da Média por Escalas da Potência localizada da ondaleta (MEPO) para a escala entre 0,7 e 1,2 anos, para as áreas de ambos os hemisférios, coincide com extremos do ENOS. Os Espectros da Potência Global (EPGs) mostraram variância máxima do ciclo anual de TSM entre 120ºE e 140ºE na faixa do HN (entre equador e 20ºN), e variância crescente da linha da data para leste com o máximo entre 100ºW e 80ºW na faixa do HS (entre equador e 20ºS). Portanto, o ciclo anual de TSM apresenta variações entre os HN e HS com a máxima variância localizando-se no hemisfério leste para o HN e no hemisfério oeste para o HS.
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