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In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 kilometers. A 4 May earthquake [moment magnitude (Mw) 6.9] produced ~5 meters of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 cubic meters per second, eventually covering 35.5 square kilometers. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent toMw4.7 to 5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent—about 0.8 cubic kilometers. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

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On 17 June 1996, Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, produced a sustained andesitic sub-Plinian eruption, which generated a narrow tephra-fall deposit extending more than 200 km from the volcano. The extremely detailed data set from this eruption allowed methods for the determination of total grain-size distribution and volume of tephra-fall deposits to be critically investigated. Calculated total grain-size distributions of tephra-fall deposits depend strongly on the method used and on the availability of data across the entire dispersal area. The Voronoi Tessellation method was tested for the Ruapehu deposit and gave the best results when applied to a data set extending out to isomass values of <1 g m 2 .The total grain-size distribution of a deposit is also strongly influenced by the very proximal samples, and this can be shown by artificially constructing subsets from the Ruapehu database. Unless the available data set is large, all existing techniques for calculations of total grain-size distribution give only apparent distributions. The tephra-fall deposit from Ruapehu does not show a simple exponential thinning, but can be approximated well by at least three straight-line segments or by a power-law fit on semi-log plots of thickness vs. (area) 1/2 . Integrations of both fits give similar volumes of about 410 6 m 3 . Integration of at least three exponential segments and of a power-law fit with at least ten isopach contours available can be considered as a good estimate of the actual volume of tephra fall. Integrations of smaller data sets are more problematic.

The central Taupo Volcanic Zone in New Zealand is a region of intense Quaternary silicic volcanism accompanying rapid extension of continental crust. At least 34 caldera-forming ignimbrite eruptions have produced a complex sequence of relatively short-lived, nested, and/or overlapping volcanic centers over 1.6 m.y. Silicic volcanism at Taupo is similar to the Yellowstone system in size, longevity, thermal flux, and magma output rate. However, Taupo contrasts with Yellowstone in the exceptionally high frequency, but small size, of caldera-forming eruptions. This contrast reflects the thin, rifted nature of the crust, which precludes the development of long-term magmatic cycles at Taupo.

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[1] The Tarawera Volcanic Complex comprises 11 rhyolite domes formed during five major eruptions between 17,000 B.C. and A.D. 1886, the first four of which were predominantly rhyolitic. The only historical event erupted about 2 km 3 of basaltic tephra fall (A.D. 1886). The youngest rhyolitic event erupted a tephra fall volume more than 2 times larger and covered a wider area northwest and southeast of the volcano ($A.D. 1315 Kaharoa eruption). We have used the Kaharoa scenario to assess the tephra fall hazard from a future rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera of a similar scale. The Plinian phase of this eruption consisted of 11 discrete episodes of VEI 4. We have developed an advection-diffusion model (TEPHRA) that allows for grain size-dependent diffusion and particle density, a stratified atmosphere, particle diffusion time within the rising plume, and settling velocities that include Reynolds number variations along the particle fall. Simulations are run in parallel on multiple processors to allow a significant implementation of the physical model and a fully probabilistic analysis of inputs and outputs. TEPHRA is an example of a class of numerical models that take advantage of new computational tools to forecast hazards as conditional probabilities far in advance of future eruptions. Three different scenarios were investigated for a comprehensive tephra fall hazard assessment: upper limit scenario, eruption range scenario, and multiple eruption scenario. Hazard curves and probability maps show that the area east and northeast of Tarawera would be the most affected by a Kaharoa-type eruption.