Background: It is unclear whether diabetes mellitus (DM) is an adverse prognostic factor in chronic heart failure (CHF) of ischaemic and non-ischaemic aetiology managed with contemporary evidence-based care. Methods: In total, 1091 outpatients with CHF with reduced ejection fraction were prospectively observed for a mean of 960 days. Total and cardiovascular mortality was quantified after accounting for potential confounders. Results: In total, 25.7% of patients had DM; this group was more likely to have CHF of ischaemic aetiology and was more symptomatic. Patients with DM received comparable medical-and device-based therapies, except for greater doses of loop diuretic. DM was associated with approximately doubled crude and adjusted risk of total and cardiovascular mortality. The association of diabetes with these outcomes in patients with ischaemic and non-ischaemic cardiomyopathies was of similar magnitude. Conclusions: In spite of advances in the management of CHF, DM remains a major adverse prognostic feature, irrespective of ischaemic/non-ischaemic aetiology.

ObjectiveAcute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) is a major cause of hospitalisation and imparts a substantial burden on patients and healthcare systems. Tools to define risk of AHFS hospitalisation are lacking.MethodsA prospective cohort study (n=628) of patients with stable chronic heart failure (CHF) secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction was used to derive an AHFS prediction model which was then assessed in a prospectively recruited validation cohort (n=462).ResultsWithin the derivation cohort, 44 (7%) patients were hospitalised as a result of AHFS during 1 year of follow-up. Predictors of AHFS hospitalisation included furosemide equivalent dose, the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, AHFS hospitalisation within the previous year and pulmonary congestion on chest radiograph, all assessed at baseline. A multivariable model containing these four variables exhibited good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow p=0.38) and discrimination (C-statistic 0.77; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.84). Using a 2.5% risk cut-off for predicted AHFS, the model defined 38.5% of patients as low risk, with negative predictive value of 99.1%; this low risk cohort exhibited <1% excess all-cause mortality per annum when compared with contemporaneous actuarial data. Within the validation cohort, an identically applied model derived comparable performance parameters (C-statistic 0.81 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.87), Hosmer–Lemeshow p=0.15, negative predictive value 100%).ConclusionsA prospectively derived and validated model using simply obtained clinical data can identify patients with CHF at low risk of hospitalisation due to AHFS in the year following assessment. This may guide the design of future strategies allocating resources to the management of CHF.

Background Dose escalation of evidence-based chronic heart failure pharmacotherapy in real-life does not approach that achieved in clinical trials; it is unclear whether this impacts upon mortality. We aimed to quantify the association between temporal changes in β-adrenoceptor antagonist (β-blocker) and ACE inhibitor (ACEI) dose and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure.