In this study, we investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis based on the bilateral trade models between the UK and its 17 main trading partner countries over the period of 1981Q1-2015Q1, by applying Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) cointegration approach. The results of this study suggest no evidence supporting the J-curve hypothesis between the UK and any of its 17 trading partners. We also find that depreciations and appreciations in value of the GBP have asymmetric effects on the UK's trade balances in the short-run. Therefore, the results of this study have potential to shed light on both short run and long run consequences of the recent fluctuations of the GBP with respect to the trade balances after the UK's EU membership referendum in 2016.

Over the last two decades, the current accounts in the European Union (EU) have diverged substantially. This divergence has raised concerns about the sustainability of the core countries' current account surpluses since the peripheral countries' financing of their significantly rising levels of current deficits depends on them. In this study, by applying both linear and nonlinear unit root tests and taking into account structural breaks in the datagenerating process, we examine the current account sustainability of the main core countries with large external surpluses. We find that the current accounts of Austria, Denmark and Germany are not on sustainable paths, which suggests that the core economies might not continue to run surpluses to finance the peripheral countries' external deficits. The results of this study imply that the policymakers in peripheral countries might take proactive measures against possible borrowing problems and capital outflow risk in the future.

No abstract

Bu çalışma, makroekonomik değişkenlere etki eden şokların Borsa İstanbul'daki sınai ve mali hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Bu amaçla, genelleştirilmiş tahmin hatası varyans ayrıştırmaları ile genelleştirilmiş etki-tepkiler kullanılmaktadır. Çalışma sonuçları, enflasyon, döviz kuru ve para arzı büyüme oranının BİST sınai ve mali endekslerindeki oynaklığı tahmin etmek için önemli bilgiler sağladığını göstermektedir. Sanayi üretiminin ise hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkisinin hem kısa hem de uzun vadede ihmal edilebilir olduğu görülmüştür. Bu çalışma, gelişmekte olan bir ülkede sektörel borsa davranışına ilişkin anlayışımızı genişletmektedir.

Introducing nature based solutions (NBS) into urban areas is a challenging task for climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, the impact and effectiveness of NBS contingent upon the social acceptability of implemented measures. This study uses a dynamic and adaptive social acceptance framework that shows how data-driven science can inform the integration of NBS into cities while also ensuring that the public embraces these solutions. We apply the framework to four different cases: METU Forest in Ankara, Tisza River Bank in Szeged, Forest Garden in Alcalá de Henares, and Quarries in Milan. The results indicate that the key factor affecting social acceptance are procedural and distributive fairness, perceived risks, costs and benefits, knowledge, experience, and personal norms. Perceived benefit is the single common driver that directly affects social acceptance across the four case studies. Understanding the risk and benefits of an NBS and developing personal norms related to the environment will contribute to the improvement of resilience.