BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Sivrikaya, Ayşen; Ongan, Serdar

doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.14

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The J‐curve hypothesis suggests that short and sudden declines of previously stable and flourishing economic growth rates lead to social and economic revolutions/unrest. The J‐curve was investigated empirically by Sivrikaya and Ongan (2019) and found to have strong compatibility with Brexit data, which implies that the Dogville effect may as well exist as a phenomenon behind the Brexit vote too.…”

Section: The Cbd Mechanism Behind the Left‐behind Votementioning

confidence: 99%

Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind

Tubadji

Colwill

Webber

2021

Regional Science Policy & Practice

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This paper promotes the idea of a culturally‐sensitive Tiebout–Hirschman–Rothschild mechanism underpinning the UK's 2016 Brexit result. Our culture‐based development (CBD) model asserts a trade‐off between two rival types of voting: voting with one's feet or voting in a radical way due to being unable to vote with one's feet, akin to a protest vote. We explore the effects on the Brexit vote of shares of public spending on culture and a particular type of migration dynamic that triggers social closure. Our findings reveal that strong support for the Leave campaign was encountered in areas with lower local government expenditure on culture and in areas with higher outflows of UK residents. Previous literature had found that left‐behind places and places with concentrations of highly educated commuters are the pro‐Brexit nests. Our CBD mechanism of perceived relative deprivation offers a reconciling explanation of these seemingly controversial findings.

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Section: The Cbd Mechanism Behind the Left‐behind Votementioning

confidence: 99%

Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind

Tubadji

Colwill

Webber

2021

Regional Science Policy & Practice

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“…While non-linear ARDL models are generally more statistically robust and tend to identify J-curve effect in a greater number of cases compared to the linear models, a number of studies nonetheless demonstrated the absence (or rather limited presence) of the J-curve even when non-linear ARDL is used. These studies included Akoto and Sakyi (2019), who did not identify the J-curve in the non-linear model in the case of aggregate trade of Ghana; Sivrikaya and Ongan (2019), who examined, using non-linear ARDL, the UK bilateral trade with seventeen trading partners but did not detect J-curve in any of the cases; and Bahmani-Oskooee et al (2016) who applied non-linear ARDL to the bilateral trade of the UK with six major trading partners, but identified significant effect only in the case of the UK–US trade (despite the presence of asymmetries across the cases, and meaningful diagnostic statistics). In the papers that generally give support to the J-curve phenomenon based on non-linear ARDL, the effect was not always observed in every or the majority of cases, for example, in 5 out of 21 among China’s trading partners (Bahmani-Oskooee et al, 2018), or in three out of eight among Pakistan’s partners (Iqbal et al, 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The J-Curve Effect in Services Trade: A Disaggregated Analysis

Trofimov

2022

Foreign Trade Review

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This article examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the services trade balance in the UK using the quarterly data for the 2005Q1–2019Q4 period. We consider the aggregate as well as disaggregated trade across five services categories. We employ linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The non-linear model, in particular, allows consideration of asymmetric response of the trade balance to depreciations as opposed to appreciations. The findings indicate little evidence of a long-term improvement in the trade balance following depreciation, and suggest the absence of J-curve effect. The effects of domestic, ‘rest of the world’ GDP and monetary base on the trade balance were respectively negative, positive and mixed. JEL: F14, F31, C22

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“…2018;Ongan vd. 2018;Sivrikaya & Ongan, 2019;Ölmez, 2021). Junz & Rhomberg (1973) çalışmalarında, ülkeler arasında gerçekleşen dış ticarette ürün miktarının fiyata olan tepkisinde beş farklı gecikmenin olabileceğini belirtmişlerdir.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Analyzing the Relationship Between the Firm’s Total Factor Productivity and Firm Characteristics in the Turkish Manufacturing Sector

Burgaç Çil

2023

Teoriden Pratiğe Ekonomi Politikaları Ve Dönüşümü II

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The empirical literature emphasizes total factor productivity growth (TFP) as the primary source of economic growth. The phenomenon of rising firm-level TFP has gained prominence in the investigation of the primary source of economic growth by policymakers. Within this scope, the contribution of TFP to economic growth in the Turkish economy is quite limited and analysis of the determinants of firm level TFP in the manufacturing industry becomes important. In this context, this paper investigated that the relationship between the firm's TFP and firm characteristics such as international trade participation, financial and ownership structure, firm size, price-to-cost margin, and profit before taxes for the Turkish manufacturing industry using firm level data. The results of the analysis indicate that international trade participation, firm size, and financial structure have a significant impact on a firm's total factor productivity. Our findings suggest, based on a heterogeneous firm level model, that for sustained economic growth, incentives should be provided to more competitive firms with high potential that can contribute to productivity improvement.

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BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Cited by 11 publications

References 35 publications

Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind

Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind

The J-Curve Effect in Services Trade: A Disaggregated Analysis

Analyzing the Relationship Between the Firm’s Total Factor Productivity and Firm Characteristics in the Turkish Manufacturing Sector

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