We asked 82 experienced managers to value, in effect, a set of real options, by taking decisions on invented case studies. The classic Black Scholes model should set an upper bound for rational valuations of these options (since it assumes a risk neutral discount rate, which may be optimistic). The managers valued their options erratically, and generally optimistically, though their responses to changes in moneyness, volatility and maturity tended to be in the 'correct' directions. Oil industry managers over-valued least, relative to Black-Scholes, and Brewery managers most. Questionnaires explored managers' perceptions of the real option parameters encountered in their workplaces. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1997.
We show how central concepts from technology and innovation management (TIM), sequential models of the New Product Development (NPD) process, and the valuation technique of`real options' can be linked, to provide a valuation framework that can be used in the value-based management of technologyintensive companies.We introduce a binomial option tree which incorporates the flexibility and the risks inherent in the NPD process into its evaluation in a theoretically correct way and is at the same time simple and easy to use. In this way, our options-based approach ties the valuation of hitech and life sciences companies closer to the underlying growth opportunities and incorporates much of the`gut feel' of experienced industry practitioners into the valuation. As a consequence, the approach leads to more defensible valuations and allows powerful insights for the value-based management of technology-intensive companies.In two numerical examples we demonstrate that the theoretically more sound option tree approach in practice can produce different valuations and lead to different decisions than a simple`discounted cash flow (DCF) tree' approach and has therefore potential to improve managerial decision making. Finally, we describe a real life situation where our options-based approach was successfully applied in the valuation for the initial public offering of a biotech company.
Reports on a survey which asked 82 experienced managers from various functions, business levels, and industries to value case studies which were in effect real options on growth. Compares these empirical valuations with theoretical values derived from a specific real options model (European non‐dividend paying). In a questionnaire survey, participating managers showed high levels of agreement with various statements needed as assumptions in the real options model. They also accepted as realistic most of the parameter settings used in the experiment. Results imply that training is needed and likely to be acceptable to managers, and underinvestment could be explained by an inability to perceive option values. Choosing teams of decision makers may reduce the variance (but not the bias) of intuitive option valuations.
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