Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the Republic of South Africa (BRICS) represent developing economies facing different energy and economic development challenges. The current study aims to predict energy consumption in BRICS at aggregate and disaggregate levels using the annual time series data set from 1992 to 2019 and to compare results obtained from a set of models. The time-series data are from the British Petroleum (BP-2019) Statistical Review of World Energy. The forecasting methodology bases on a novel Fractional-order Grey Model (FGM) with different order parameters. This study contributes to the literature by comparing the forecasting accuracy and the predictive ability of the with traditional ones, like standard and models. Moreover, it illustrates the view of BRICS’s nexus of energy consumption at aggregate and disaggregates levels using the latest available data set, which will provide a reliable and broader perspective. The Diebold-Mariano test results confirmed the equal predictive ability of for a specific range of order parameters and the model and the usefulness of both approaches for energy consumption efficient forecasting.
Due to industrialization, urbanization, and rapid population increases, the worldwide energy demand is increasing daily. The need for energy meets limitations, and searching for new energy sources is crucial, particularly for European countries. Energy crises occur temporarily due to different circumstances and cause oil price fluctuations. The present study aims to identify circular economy (CE) determinants that conditionally increase/decrease energy use to remain sustainable. It focuses on the linkage between energy consumption the and circular economy in the European Union (EU) member states. In the econometric panel model specifications, two alternative endogenous variables are considered, i.e., total energy consumption and energy consumption from renewable sources. The results demonstrate that the selected CE indicators decreased the former and increased the latter. The data covered the period of 2010–2019. The significance of this study relies upon identifying the current level of CE implementation in the EU countries in the context of reducing total energy consumption and increasing the share of energy from renewable sources.
The paper aims to identify the most likely factors that determine the demand for energy consumption from renewable sources (renewable energy consumption—REC) in European countries. Although in Europe, a high environmental awareness is omnipresent, countries differ in scope and share of REC due to historical energetic policies and dependencies, investments into renewable and traditional energetic sectors, R&D development, structural changes required by energetic policy change, and many other factors. The study refers to a set of macroeconomic, institutional, and social factors affecting energetic renewable policy and REC in selected European countries in two points of time: i.e., before and after the Paris Agreement. The Bayesian Average Classical Estimates (BACE) is applied to indicate the most likely factors affecting REC in 2015 and 2018. The comparison of the results reveals that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) level, nuclear and hydro energy consumption were the determinants significant in both analyzed years. Furthermore, it became clear that in 2015, the REC depended strongly on the energy consumption structure, while in 2018, the foreign direct investment and trade openness played their role in increasing renewable energy consumption. The direction of changes is gradual and positive. It complies with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The paper utilizes a comprehensive approach to threshold cointegration to analyse the Israeli per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth dynamics. The time-series data for the years 1980–2019 are taken. The study uses a two-regime threshold error correction model (TECM) to test short- and long-term growth factors. The results reveal that Research and Development (R&D) expenses measured as a percentage of GDP are the primary driving force in the long and short term. The threshold value of 3.25% of GDP exhibits a substantial difference between the two regimes corresponding to the development phases of the Israeli economy. The results are validated using various tests for threshold models. The general conclusion is that the applied hierarchical procedure for TECM model construction is robust and universal for modeling economic growth. The results allow the formulation of policy implications.
The aim of the paper is to identify the most likely factors that determine the demand for Renewa-ble Energy Consumption (R.E.C.) in European countries. Although in Europe a high environmen-tal awareness is omnipresent, countries differ in scope and share of R.E.C. due to historical ener-getic policies and dependencies, investments into renewable and traditional energetic sectors, R&D development, structural changes required by energetic policy change, and many other fac-tors. The study refers to a set of macroeconomic, institutional, and social factors affecting energetic renewable policy and R.E.C. in selected European countries in two points of time: i.e., before and after the Paris Agreement. The Bayesian Average Classical Estimates (BACE) is applied to indicate the most likely factors affecting R.E.C. in 2015 and 2018. The comparison of the results reveals that the G.D.P. level, nuclear and hydro energy consumption were the determinants significant in both analyzed years. Furthermore, it became clear that in 2015 the R.E.C. depended strongly on the energy consumption structure, while in 2018, the foreign direct investment and trade openness played their role in increasing renewable energy consumption. The direction of changes is positive and complies with sustainable development goals (S.D.G.s).
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