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Green infrastructure (GI) has emerged as a feasible strategy for promoting adaptive capacities of cities to climate change by alleviating urban heat island (UHI) and thus heat stress for humans. However, GI can also intensify the winter cold stress. To understand the extent of UHI within a city as well as the link between outdoor thermal stress both diurnally and seasonally, we carried out an empirical study in Würzburg, Germany from 2018 to 2020. At sub-urban sites, relative humidity and wind speed (WS) was considerably higher and air temperature (AT) lower compared to the inner city sites. Mean AT of inner city sites were higher by 1.3 °C during summer and 5 °C during winter compared to sub-urban sites. The magnitude followed the spatial land use patterns, in particular the amount of buildings. Consequently, out of 97 hot days (AT > 30 °C) in 3 years, 9 days above the extreme threshold of wet bulb globe temperature of 35 °C were recorded at a centre location compared to none at a sub-urban site. Extreme heat stress could be halved with 30–40% cover of greenspaces including grass lawns, green roofs, and green walls with little compromise in increasing winter cold stress.

Key message A model for sustainable planning of urban tree stocks is proposed, incorporating growth, mortality, replacement rates and ecosystem service provision, providing a basis for planning of urban tree stocks. Abstract Many recent studies have improved the knowledge about urban trees, their structures, functions, and ecosystem services. We introduce a concept and model for the sustainable management of urban trees, analogous to the concept of sustainable forestry developed by Carl von Carlowitz and others. The main drivers of the model are species-specific tree diameter growth functions and mortality rates. Based on the initial tree stock and options for the annual replanting, the shift of the distribution of the number of trees per age class can be predicted with progressing time. Structural characteristics such as biomass and leaf area are derived from tree dimensions that can be related to functions such as carbon sequestration or cooling. To demonstrate the potential of the dynamic model, we first show how different initial stocks of trees can be quantitatively assessed by sustainability indicators compared to a target stock. Second, we derive proxy variables for ecosystem services (e.g. biomass for carbon sequestration, leaf area for deposition and shading) from a given distribution of the number of trees per age class. Third, we show by scenario analyses how selected ecosystem services and functions may be improved by combining complementary tree species. We exercise one aspect (cooling) of one ecosystem service (temperature mitigation) as an example. The approach integrates mosaic pieces of knowledge about urban trees, their structures, functions, and resulting ecosystem services. The presented model makes this knowledge available for a sustainable management of urban tree stocks. We discuss the potential and relevance of the developed concept and model for ecologically and economically sustainable planning and management, in view of progressing urbanization and environmental changes.

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