Objectives To assess seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a densely populated urban Indian settings and its implications for disease trends and protective immunity. Design Cross-sectional sero-epidemiological survey linked with administrative reporting of COVID-19 testing data. Settings Pune city in western India Main outcome measure Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies were estimated and along with correlates of virus neutralisation and other immune and inflammatory markers. Results Seropositivity was extensive (51.3%; 95%CI 39.9 to 62.4) but varied widely in the five localities tested, ranging from 35.8% to 66.4%. Seropositivity was higher in crowded living conditions in the slums (OR 1.91), and was lower in those 65 years or older (OR 0.59). The infection-fatality ratio was estimated at 0.21%. Post survey, COVID-19 incidence was lower in areas noted to have higher seroprevalence. Substantial virus-neutralising activity was observed in seropositive individuals, but with considerable heterogeneity in the immune response and possible age-dependent diversity in the antibody repertoire. Conclusion Despite crowded living conditions having facilitated widespread transmission, the variability in seroprevalence in localities that are in geographical proximity indicates a heterogenous spread of infection. Declining infection rates in areas with high seropositivity suggest population-level protection. It is also supported by substantial neutralising activity in asymptomatically infected individuals. This is the first report of a significantly high proportion of protective immune response among asymptomatic individuals in the population. The heterogeneity in antibody levels and neutralisation capacity indicates the existence of immunological sub-groups of functional interest. Trial registration Registered with the Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI/2020/07/026509)
Background Typhoid fever causes substantial global mortality, with almost half occurring in India. New typhoid vaccines are highly effective and recommended by the World Health Organization for high-burden settings. There is a need to determine whether and which typhoid vaccine strategies should be implemented in India. Methods We assessed typhoid vaccination using a dynamic compartmental model, parameterized by and calibrated to disease and costing data from a recent multisite surveillance study in India. We modeled routine and 1-time campaign strategies that target different ages and settings. The primary outcome was cost-effectiveness, measured by incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) benchmarked against India’s gross national income per capita (US$2130). Results Both routine and campaign vaccination strategies were cost-saving compared to the status quo, due to averted costs of illness. The preferred strategy was a nationwide community-based catchup campaign targeting children aged 1–15 years alongside routine vaccination, with an ICER of $929 per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Over the first 10 years of implementation, vaccination could avert 21–39 million cases and save $1.6–$2.2 billion. These findings were broadly consistent across willingness-to-pay thresholds, epidemiologic settings, and model input distributions. Conclusions Despite high initial costs, routine and campaign typhoid vaccination in India could substantially reduce mortality and was highly cost-effective.
Background Early childhood home environment is intricately linked to child development and later cognitive and academic skills. There is limited literature evaluating home environmental trends and predictors in the low‐ and middle‐income country settings. Aims Determine the trends of early childhood home environment changes between 6 and 36 months of age, and the factors associated with these changes. Study design Longitudinal community‐based birth cohort follow‐up study in a semi‐urban slum in Vellore, South India. Subjects Consecutive sampling of a birth cohort between March 2010 and February 2012. Outcome measures Home environment was objectively assessed using the ‘Home Observation for the Measurement of the Environment’ (HOME) scale. Predictors of change in the home environment over time also were analyzed. Multivariable linear regression models and linear mixed effect models were used to identify the factors associated with HOME score at individual time points and over‐a‐time period, respectively. Results The birth cohort enrolled 251 children with a follow‐up of 235, 228 and 218 children at 6, 24 and 36 months, respectively. The socio‐economic status (SES) was the single biggest predictor for the HOME score at each time point, with increasing strength over time. Maternal education predicted home environment at 24 months, while maternal depression was negatively associated at 6 and 24 months of age. SES and maternal factors contributed to the overall change in the HOME score. Maternal factors predicted relational home environmental change over time. Conclusion SES and maternal factors consistently predicted early childhood home environment at 6, 24 and 36 months of age and its change over time. It is important to support maternal education and wellbeing along with socio‐economic measures to optimize early childhood environment.
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