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Research demonstrates that the majority of alarms derived from continuous bedside monitoring devices are non-actionable. This avalanche of unreliable alerts causes clinicians to experience sensory overload when attempting to sort real from false alarms, causing desensitization and alarm fatigue, which in turn leads to adverse events when true instability is neither recognized nor attended to despite the alarm. The scope of the problem of alarm fatigue is broad, and its contributing mechanisms are numerous. Current and future approaches to defining and reacting to actionable and non-actionable alarms are being developed and investigated, but challenges in impacting alarm modalities, sensitivity and specificity, and clinical activity in order to reduce alarm fatigue and adverse events remain. A multi-faceted approach involving clinicians, computer scientists, industry, and regulatory agencies is needed to battle alarm fatigue.

OBJECTIVE Use machine-learning (ML) algorithms to classify alerts as real or artifacts in online noninvasive vital sign (VS) data streams to reduce alarm fatigue and missed true instability. METHODS Using a 24-bed trauma step-down unit’s non-invasive VS monitoring data (heart rate [HR], respiratory rate [RR], peripheral oximetry [SpO2]) recorded at 1/20Hz, and noninvasive oscillometric blood pressure [BP] less frequently, we partitioned data into training/validation (294 admissions; 22,980 monitoring hours) and test sets (2,057 admissions; 156,177 monitoring hours). Alerts were VS deviations beyond stability thresholds. A four-member expert committee annotated a subset of alerts (576 in training/validation set, 397 in test set) as real or artifact selected by active learning, upon which we trained ML algorithms. The best model was evaluated on alerts in the test set to enact online alert classification as signals evolve over time. MAIN RESULTS The Random Forest model discriminated between real and artifact as the alerts evolved online in the test set with area under the curve (AUC) performance of 0.79 (95% CI 0.67-0.93) for SpO2 at the instant the VS first crossed threshold and increased to 0.87 (95% CI 0.71-0.95) at 3 minutes into the alerting period. BP AUC started at 0.77 (95%CI 0.64-0.95) and increased to 0.87 (95% CI 0.71-0.98), while RR AUC started at 0.85 (95%CI 0.77-0.95) and increased to 0.97 (95% CI 0.94–1.00). HR alerts were too few for model development. CONCLUSIONS ML models can discern clinically relevant SpO2, BP and RR alerts from artifacts in an online monitoring dataset (AUC>0.87).

Tachycardia is a strong though non-specific marker of cardiovascular stress that proceeds hemodynamic instability. We designed a predictive model of tachycardia using multi-granular intensive care unit (ICU) data by creating a risk score and dynamic trajectory. A subset of clinical and numerical signals were extracted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II database. A tachycardia episode was defined as heart rate ≥ 130/min lasting for ≥ 5 min, with ≥ 10% density. Regularized logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) classifiers were trained to create a risk score for upcoming tachycardia. Three different risk score models were compared for tachycardia and control (non-tachycardia) groups. Risk trajectory was generated from time windows moving away at 1 min increments from the tachycardia episode. Trajectories were computed over 3 hours leading up to the episode for three different models. From 2809 subjects, 787 tachycardia episodes and 707 control periods were identified. Patients with tachycardia had increased vasopressor support, longer ICU stay, and increased ICU mortality than controls. In model evaluation, RF was slightly superior to LR, which accuracy ranged from 0.847 to 0.782, with area under the curve from 0.921 to 0.842. Risk trajectory analysis showed average risks for tachycardia group evolved to 0.78 prior to the tachycardia episodes, while control group risks remained < 0.3. Among the three models, the internal control model demonstrated evolving trajectory approximately 75 min before tachycardia episode. Clinically relevant tachycardia episodes can be predicted from vital sign time series using machine learning algorithms.

Inductive machine learning, and in particular extraction of association rules from data, has been successfully used in multiple application domains, such as market basket analysis, disease prognosis, fraud detection, and protein sequencing. The appeal of rule extraction techniques stems from their ability to handle intricate problems yet produce models based on rules that can be comprehended by humans, and are therefore more transparent. Human comprehension is a factor that may improve adoption and use of data-driven decision support systems clinically via face validity. In this work, we explore whether we can reliably and informatively forecast cardiorespiratory instability (CRI) in step-down unit (SDU) patients utilizing data from continuous monitoring of physiologic vital sign (VS) measurements. We use a temporal association rule extraction technique in conjunction with a rule fusion protocol to learn how to forecast CRI in continuously monitored patients. We detail our approach and present and discuss encouraging empirical results obtained using continuous multivariate VS data from the bedside monitors of 297 SDU patients spanning 29 346 hours (3.35 patient-years) of observation. We present example rules that have been learned from data to illustrate potential benefits of comprehensibility of the extracted models, and we analyze the empirical utility of each VS as a potential leading indicator of an impending CRI event.

PURPOSE Huge hospital information system databases can be mined for knowledge discovery and decision support, but artifact in stored non-invasive vital sign (VS) high-frequency data streams limits its use. We used machine-learning (ML) algorithms trained on expert-labeled VS data streams to automatically classify VS alerts as real or artifact, thereby “cleaning” such data for future modeling. METHODS 634 admissions to a step-down unit had recorded continuous noninvasive VS monitoring data (heart rate [HR], respiratory rate [RR], peripheral arterial oxygen saturation [SpO2] at 1/20Hz., and noninvasive oscillometric blood pressure [BP]) Time data were across stability thresholds defined VS event epochs. Data were divided Block 1 as the ML training/cross-validation set and Block 2 the test set. Expert clinicians annotated Block 1 events as perceived real or artifact. After feature extraction, ML algorithms were trained to create and validate models automatically classifying events as real or artifact. The models were then tested on Block 2. RESULTS Block 1 yielded 812 VS events, with 214 (26%) judged by experts as artifact (RR 43%, SpO2 40%, BP 15%, HR 2%). ML algorithms applied to the Block 1 training/cross-validation set (10-fold cross-validation) gave area under the curve (AUC) scores of 0.97 RR, 0.91 BP and 0.76 SpO2. Performance when applied to Block 2 test data was AUC 0.94 RR, 0.84 BP and 0.72 SpO2). CONCLUSIONS ML-defined algorithms applied to archived multi-signal continuous VS monitoring data allowed accurate automated classification of VS alerts as real or artifact, and could support data mining for future model building.

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