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[1] We constructed a model-based evaluation of current and future effects of atmospheric S and N deposition on aquatic resources in the eight-state southern Appalachian Mountains region. Modeling was conducted with the MAGIC model for about 40 to 50 sites within each of three physiographic provinces, stratified by stream water acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) class. Simulations were based on assumed constant future atmospheric deposition at 1995 levels and on three regional strategies of emissions controls provided by the Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiative (SAMI), based on the Urban to Regional Multiscale One-Atmosphere model. The National Stream Survey statistical frame was used to estimate the number and percentage of stream reaches in the region that were projected to change their chemistry in response to the emissions control strategies. There was a small decline in the estimated length of projected acidic (ANC 0) streams in 2040 from the least to the most restrictive emissions control strategy, but there was little difference in projected stream length in the other ANC classes as a consequence of adopting one or another strategy. However, projections of continued future acidification were substantially larger under a scenario in which S and N deposition were held constant into the future at 1995 levels. Model results suggested that the percent of potentially acid-sensitive streams having chemistry that is chronically unsuitable for brook trout would increase slightly between 1995 and 2040 under all except the most restrictive emissions control strategy.

Streamwater composition data obtained through periodic sampling of streams that support brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in the mountains of western Virginia were examined for evidence of recovery from acidification during the 1988-2001 period. Measurements of sulfate deposition in precipitation indicate that sulfate deposition in the region declined approximately 40% between 1985 and 2000. While no significant regional trends in acid-base constituents were observed for the set (n = 65) of western Virginia study streams, significant regional trends were observed for a subset (n = 14) of streams in Shenandoah National Park (SNP). For the subset of SNP streams, the median increase in acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) was 0.168 microequiv L(-1) year(-1) and the median decrease in sulfate concentration was -0.229 microequiv L(-1) year(-1). Although these trends are consistent with recovery from acidification, the degree of apparent recovery is small compared to estimates of historic acidification in SNP streams and much less than observed in other, more northern regions in the United States. Correlation between sulfate concentration trends and current sulfate concentrations in streamwater suggests that recovery from stream acidification in the western Virginia region is determined by sulfur retention processes in watershed soils. A transient increase in nitrate concentrations that occurred among some western Virginia streams following forest defoliation by the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) complicates interpretation of the observed patterns of change in acid-base status.

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A modeling study was conducted to evaluate the acid-base chemistry of streams within Shenandoah National Park, Virginia and to project future responses to sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) atmospheric emissions controls. Many of the major stream systems in the park have acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) less than 20 microeq/L, levels at which chronic and/or episodic adverse impacts on native brook trout are possible. Model hindcasts suggested that none of these streams had ANC less than 50 microeq/L in 1900. Model projections, based on atmospheric emissions controls representative of laws already enacted as of 2003, suggested that the ANC of those streams simulated to have experienced the largest historical decreases in ANC will increase in the future. The levels of S deposition that were simulated to cause streamwater ANC to increase or decrease to three specified critical levels (0, 20, and 50 microeq/L) ranged from less than zero (ANC level not attainable) to several hundred kg/ha/year, depending on the selected site and its inherent acid-sensitivity, selected ANC endpoint criterion, and evaluation year for which the critical load was calculated. Several of the modeled streams situated on siliciclastic geology exhibited critical loads <0 kg/ha/year to achieve ANC >50 microeq/L in the year 2040, probably due at least in part to base cation losses from watershed soil. The median modeled siliciclastic stream had a calculated critical load to achieve ANC >50 microeq/L in 2100 that was about 3 kg/ha/year, or 77% lower than deposition in 1990, representing the time of model calibration.

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