Laboratories and their criminal justice systems are confronted with challenges for implementing new technologies, practices, and policies even when there appears to be demonstrative benefits to operational performance. Impacting decisions are the often higher costs associated with, for example, new technologies, limited current budgets, and making hard decisions on what to sacrifice to take on the seemingly better approach. A prospective cost–benefit analysis (CBA) could help an agency better formulate its strategies and plans and more importantly delineate how a relatively small increase to take on, for example, a new technology can have large impact on the system (e.g., the agency, other agencies, victims and families, and taxpayers). To demonstrate the process and potential value a CBA was performed on the use of an alternate and more expensive swab with reported better DNA yield and being certified human DNA free (i.e., nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs®), versus the traditional less costly swab (i.e., cotton swab). Assumptions are described, potential underestimates and overestimates noted, different values applied (for low and modest to high), and potential benefits (monetary and qualitative) presented. The overall outcome is that the cost of using the more expensive technology pales compared with the potential tangible and intangible benefits. This approach could be a guide for laboratories (and associated criminal justice systems) worldwide to support increased funding, although the costs and benefits may vary locally and for different technologies, practices, and policies. With well-developed CBAs, goals of providing the best services to support the criminal justice system and society can be attained.
Next-generation sequencing (NGS), also known as massively sequencing, enables large dense SNP panel analyses which generate the genetic component of forensic investigative genetic genealogy (FIGG). While the costs of implementing large SNP panel analyses into the laboratory system may seem high and daunting, the benefits of the technology may more than justify the investment. To determine if an infrastructural investment in public laboratories and using large SNP panel analyses would reap substantial benefits to society, a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) was performed. This CBA applied the logic that an increase of DNA profile uploads to a DNA database due to a sheer increase in number of markers and a greater sensitivity of detection afforded with NGS and a higher hit/association rate due to large SNP/kinship resolution and genealogy will increase investigative leads, will be more effective for identifying recidivists which in turn reduces future victims of crime, and will bring greater safety and security to communities. Analyses were performed for worst case/best case scenarios as well as by simulation sampling the range spaces with multiple input values simultaneously to generate best estimate summary statistics. This study shows that the benefits, both tangible and intangible, over the lifetime of an advanced database system would be huge and can be projected to be for less than $1 billion per year (over a 10-year period) investment can reap on average > $4.8 billion in tangible and intangible cost-benefits per year. More importantly, on average > 50,000 individuals need not become victims if FIGG were employed, assuming investigative associations generated were acted upon. The benefit to society is immense making the laboratory investment a nominal cost. The benefits likely are underestimated herein. There is latitude in the estimated costs, and even if they were doubled or tripled, there would still be substantial benefits gained with a FIGG-based approach. While the data used in this CBA are US centric (primarily because data were readily accessible), the model is generalizable and could be used by other jurisdictions to perform relevant and representative CBAs.
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