A Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity cost benefit analysis for use of nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs®

Budowle, Bruce; Arnette, Andrew N.; Ge, Jianye; Sajantila, Antti

doi:10.1016/j.fsigss.2022.09.021

Cited by 2 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…It was determined that "A simulation approach to analyze benefits and risks enables better use of extant data, obtains more realistic outcomes, and provides better conveyance of the uncertainty associated with the input data." (Budowle et al, 2022). While the results of this analysis compared with a traditional cost-benefit analysis are promising, they are still subject to the uncertainty problem.…”

Section: The Optimality Problem Despite Attempts To Manage Itmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Further, we could even compare using concentrated solar plants instead of photovoltaics while also analyzing each subtype of concentrated solar plants, such as parabolic troughs and solar power towers. Another example by Budowle et al (2022) shows the usage of Monte Carlo simulations. When comparing swabs for assault victims, there are a variety of options.…”

Section: The Optimality Problem Despite Attempts To Manage Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When comparing swabs for assault victims, there are a variety of options. Budowle et al (2022) utilize a Monte Carlo simulation to see whether the increase in the identification of offenders was worth the increased cost of a new nylon swab. It was determined that "A simulation approach to analyze benefits and risks enables better use of extant data, obtains more realistic outcomes, and provides better conveyance of the uncertainty associated with the input data."…”

Section: The Optimality Problem Despite Attempts To Manage Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the results of this analysis compared with a traditional cost-benefit analysis are promising, they are still subject to the uncertainty problem. Budowle et al (2022) accounted for general uncertainty in cost inputs but did not account for the costs and benefits of waiting for new information regarding new developments in swabs nor in general genetic identification. How do we know that we couldn't realize greater benefits from waiting until the nylon swab becomes cheaper, even if at a higher cost of police work and worse accuracy?…”

Section: The Optimality Problem Despite Attempts To Manage Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Uncertainty Problem in Cost-Benefit Analysis Expanded: A Current Review

Linton

2024

J. Econ. Impact

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This article examines the current state of cost-benefit analysis and its limitations. The review was completed by looking at current literature of cost-benefit analysis with the most up to date developments. Currently, it faces known challenges in quantifying subjective human elements, incommensurable costs and benefits, difficulty in measuring and discounting future benefits and costs, and the potential lack of impartiality in regulatory settings. However, this article uniquely addresses a paradox in the analysis process itself related to the discovery of new information. Methods to mitigate risk and uncertainty, such as sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, and scenario analysis, are analyzed. Additionally, quasi-option value is addressed as it relates the discovery of new information. Despite these approaches to mitigate uncertainty, uncertainty remains a fundamental challenge in achieving true optimality through cost-benefit analysis. However, it is found that despite the paradox identified in this article, it can still be a useful tool in evaluating decision alternatives.

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Section: The Optimality Problem Despite Attempts To Manage Itmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: The Optimality Problem Despite Attempts To Manage Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Optimality Problem Despite Attempts To Manage Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Optimality Problem Despite Attempts To Manage Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Uncertainty Problem in Cost-Benefit Analysis Expanded: A Current Review

Linton

2024

J. Econ. Impact

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“…Budowle et al [ 49 , 50 ] recently showed using a CBA model (both with static bounding values and with a Monte Carlo simulation) that replacing lower performing cotton swabs with higher performing, higher cost nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs® (COPAN Italia, SpA) is justifiable and a highly beneficial investment. A similar CBA can be performed for assessing NGS and FIGG.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A cost–benefit analysis for use of large SNP panels and high throughput typing for forensic investigative genetic genealogy

2023

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Next-generation sequencing (NGS), also known as massively sequencing, enables large dense SNP panel analyses which generate the genetic component of forensic investigative genetic genealogy (FIGG). While the costs of implementing large SNP panel analyses into the laboratory system may seem high and daunting, the benefits of the technology may more than justify the investment. To determine if an infrastructural investment in public laboratories and using large SNP panel analyses would reap substantial benefits to society, a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) was performed. This CBA applied the logic that an increase of DNA profile uploads to a DNA database due to a sheer increase in number of markers and a greater sensitivity of detection afforded with NGS and a higher hit/association rate due to large SNP/kinship resolution and genealogy will increase investigative leads, will be more effective for identifying recidivists which in turn reduces future victims of crime, and will bring greater safety and security to communities. Analyses were performed for worst case/best case scenarios as well as by simulation sampling the range spaces with multiple input values simultaneously to generate best estimate summary statistics. This study shows that the benefits, both tangible and intangible, over the lifetime of an advanced database system would be huge and can be projected to be for less than $1 billion per year (over a 10-year period) investment can reap on average > $4.8 billion in tangible and intangible cost-benefits per year. More importantly, on average > 50,000 individuals need not become victims if FIGG were employed, assuming investigative associations generated were acted upon. The benefit to society is immense making the laboratory investment a nominal cost. The benefits likely are underestimated herein. There is latitude in the estimated costs, and even if they were doubled or tripled, there would still be substantial benefits gained with a FIGG-based approach. While the data used in this CBA are US centric (primarily because data were readily accessible), the model is generalizable and could be used by other jurisdictions to perform relevant and representative CBAs.

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A Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity cost benefit analysis for use of nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs®

Cited by 2 publications

References 1 publication

The Uncertainty Problem in Cost-Benefit Analysis Expanded: A Current Review

The Uncertainty Problem in Cost-Benefit Analysis Expanded: A Current Review

A cost–benefit analysis for use of large SNP panels and high throughput typing for forensic investigative genetic genealogy

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