Resilient secondary tropical forests? Although deforestation is rampant across the tropics, forest has a strong capacity to regrow on abandoned lands. These “secondary” forests may increasingly play important roles in biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and landscape restoration. Poorter et al . analyzed the patterns of recovery in forest attributes (related to soil, plant functioning, structure, and diversity) in 77 secondary forest sites in the Americas and West Africa. They found that different attributes recovered at different rates, with soil recovering in less than a decade and species diversity and biomass recovering in little more than a century. The authors discuss how these findings can be applied in efforts to promote forest restoration. —AMS

As countries advance in greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for climate change mitigation, consistent estimates of aboveground net biomass change (∆AGB) are needed. Countries with limited forest monitoring capabilities in the tropics and subtropics rely on IPCC 2006 default ∆AGB rates, which are values per ecological zone, per continent. Similarly, research into forest biomass change at a large scale also makes use of these rates. IPCC 2006 default rates come from a handful of studies, provide no uncertainty indications and do not distinguish between older secondary forests and old‐growth forests. As part of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, we incorporate ∆AGB data available from 2006 onwards, comprising 176 chronosequences in secondary forests and 536 permanent plots in old‐growth and managed/logged forests located in 42 countries in Africa, North and South America and Asia. We generated ∆AGB rate estimates for younger secondary forests (≤20 years), older secondary forests (>20 years and up to 100 years) and old‐growth forests, and accounted for uncertainties in our estimates. In tropical rainforests, for which data availability was the highest, our ∆AGB rate estimates ranged from 3.4 (Asia) to 7.6 (Africa) Mg ha−1 year−1 in younger secondary forests, from 2.3 (North and South America) to 3.5 (Africa) Mg ha−1 year−1 in older secondary forests, and 0.7 (Asia) to 1.3 (Africa) Mg ha−1 year−1 in old‐growth forests. We provide a rigorous and traceable refinement of the IPCC 2006 default rates in tropical and subtropical ecological zones, and identify which areas require more research on ∆AGB. In this respect, this study should be considered as an important step towards quantifying the role of tropical and subtropical forests as carbon sinks with higher accuracy; our new rates can be used for large‐scale GHG accounting by governmental bodies, nongovernmental organizations and in scientific research.

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Abstract. Forest age can determine the capacity of a forest to uptake carbon from the atmosphere. However, a lack of global diagnostics that reflect the forest stage and associated disturbance regimes hampers the quantification of age-related differences in forest carbon dynamics. This study provides a new global distribution of forest age circa 2010, estimated using a machine learning approach trained with more than 40 000 plots using forest inventory, biomass and climate data. First, an evaluation against the plot-level measurements of forest age reveals that the data-driven method has a relatively good predictive capacity of classifying old-growth vs. non-old-growth (precision = 0.81 and 0.99 for old-growth and non-old-growth, respectively) forests and estimating corresponding forest age estimates (NSE = 0.6 – Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency – and RMSE = 50 years – root-mean-square error). However, there are systematic biases of overestimation in young- and underestimation in old-forest stands, respectively. Globally, we find a large variability in forest age with the old-growth forests in the tropical regions of Amazon and Congo, young forests in China, and intermediate stands in Europe. Furthermore, we find that the regions with high rates of deforestation or forest degradation (e.g. the arc of deforestation in the Amazon) are composed mainly of younger stands. Assessment of forest age in the climate space shows that the old forests are either in cold and dry regions or warm and wet regions, while young–intermediate forests span a large climatic gradient. Finally, comparing the presented forest age estimates with a series of regional products reveals differences rooted in different approaches and different in situ observations and global-scale products. Despite showing robustness in cross-validation results, additional methodological insights on further developments should as much as possible harmonize data across the different approaches. The forest age dataset presented here provides additional insights into the global distribution of forest age to better understand the global dynamics in the forest water and carbon cycles. The forest age datasets are openly available at https://doi.org/10.17871/ForestAgeBGI.2021 (Besnard et al., 2021).

Many sources indicate that smallholder tree-crop commodity farmers are poor, but there is a paucity of data on how many of them are poor and the depth of poverty. The living income concept establishes the net annual income required for a household in a place to afford a decent standard of living. Based on datasets on smallholder cocoa and tea farmers in Ghana, Ivory Coast and Kenya and literature, we conclude that a large proportion of such farmers do not have the potential to earn a living income based on their current situation. Because these farmers typically cultivate small farm sizes and have low capacity to invest and to diversify, there are no silver bullets to move them out of poverty. We present an assessment approach that results in insights into which interventions can be effective in improving the livelihoods of different types of farmers. While it is morally imperative that all households living in poverty are supported to earn a living income, the assessment approach and literature indicate that focussing on short- to medium-term interventions for households with a low likelihood of generating a living income could be: improving food security and health, finding off-farm and alternative employment, and social assistance programmes. In the long term, land governance policies could address land fragmentation and secure rights. Achieving living incomes based on smallholder commodity production requires more discussion and engagement with farmers and their household members and within their communities, coordination between all involved stakeholders, sharing lessons learnt and data.

No abstract

Abstract. Forest age can determine the capacity of a forest to uptake carbon from the atmosphere. Yet, a lack of global diagnostics that reflect the forest stage and associated disturbance regimes hampers the quantification of age-related differences in forest carbon dynamics. In this study, we provide a new global distribution of forest age circa 2010, estimated using a machine learning approach trained with more than 40,000 plots using forest inventory, biomass and climate data. First, evaluation against the plot level forest age measurements reveals that the data-driven method has a relatively good predictive capacity of classifying old-growth vs. non-old-growth (precision = 0.81 and 0.99 for old-growth and non-old-growth, respectively) forests and estimating corresponding forest ages (NSE = 0.6 and RMSE = 50 years). Yet, there are systematic biases with overestimation in young and underestimation in old forest stands, respectively. Globally, we find a large variability of forest age with the old-growth forests in the tropical regions of Amazon and Congo, and young forests in China and intermediate stands in Europe. On the other hand, we find that the regions with high rates of deforestation or forest degradation (e.g., the arc of deforestation in the Amazon) are largely composed of younger stands. Assessment of forest age in the climate-space shows that the old-forests are either in cold and dry regions or in warm and wet regions, while young-intermediate forests span a large climatic gradient. Finally, a comparison between the presented forest age estimates with a series of regional products reveals differences rooted in different approaches as well as in different in-situ observations and global-scale products. Despite showing robustness in cross-validation results, additional methodological insights on further developments should as much as possible harmonize data across the different approaches. The forest age dataset presented here provides additional insights into the global distribution of forest age in support of a better understanding of the global dynamics in the forest water and carbon cycles. The forest age datasets are openly available at https://doi.org/10.17871/ForestAgeBGI.2021 (Besnard et al., 2021). For anonymous access during review, please refer to the data availability section below.

For monitoring and reporting forest carbon stocks and fluxes, many countries in the tropics and subtropics rely on default values of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories. Default IPCC forest AGB values originated from 2006, and are relatively crude estimates of average values per continent and ecological zone. The 2006 default values were based on limited plot data available at the time, methods for their derivation were not fully clear, and no distinction between successional stages was made. As part of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories, we updated the default AGB values for tropical and subtropical forests based on AGB data from >25,000 plots in natural forests and a global AGB map where no plot data were available. We calculated refined AGB default values per continent, ecological zone, and successional stage, and provided a measure of uncertainty. AGB in tropical and subtropical forests varies by an order of magnitude across continents, ecological zones, and successional stage. Our refined default values generally reflect the climatic gradients in the tropics, with more AGB in wetter areas. AGB is generally higher in old-growth than in secondary forests, and higher in older secondary (regrowth >20 years old and degraded/logged forests) than in young secondary forests (≤20 years old). While refined default values for tropical old-growth forest are largely similar to the previous 2006 default values, the new default values are 4.0 to 7.7-fold lower for young secondary forests. Thus, the refined values will strongly alter estimated carbon stocks and fluxes, and emphasize the critical importance of old-growth forest conservation. We provide a reproducible approach to facilitate future refinements and encourage targeted efforts to establish permanent plots in areas with data gaps.