Background Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes.Methods For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to T max , cumulative degree day T max , T min , cumulative degree day T min , and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations.Findings 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0•9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in T max over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0•52, p=0•034) as were annual cumulative increases in T min (r=0•61, p=0•010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for T max (r=0•53, p=0•030) and T min (r=0•48, p=0•05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0•62, p=0•008) and pollen season duration (r=0•68, p=0•003) when averaged for all 17 locations.Interpretation Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (T min and T max ) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health-one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase.

No abstract

Abstract. This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The sevenmodel European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the seaPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. M. Sofiev et al.: MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersionson were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a recordlow pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.

We present the results of birch pollen characterization using lidar and in situ measurements based on a 11 d pollination period from 5 to 15 May 2016 at the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) station in Vehmasmäki (Kuopio; 62 • 44 N, 27 • 33 E), Finland. The ground-based multiwavelength Raman polarization lidar Polly XT performed continuous measurements at this rural forest site and has been combined with a Hirst-type volumetric air sampler, which measured the pollen type and concentration at roof level (4 m). The period was separated into two parts due to different atmospheric conditions and detected pollen types. During the first period, high concentrations of birch pollen were measured with a maximum 2 h average pollen concentration of 3700 grains m −3 . Other pollen types represented less than 3 % of the total pollen count. In observed pollen layers, the mean particle depolarization ratio at 532 nm was 10 ± 6 % during the intense birch pollination period. Mean lidar ratios were found to be 45±7 and 55±16 sr at 355 and 532 nm, respectively. During the second period, birch pollen was still dominant, but a significant contribution of spruce pollen was observed as well. Spruce pollen grains are highly nonspherical, leading to a larger mean depolarization ratio of 26 ± 7 % for the birch-spruce pollen mixture. Furthermore, higher lidar ratios were observed during this period with mean values of 60 ± 3 and 62 ± 10 sr at 355 and 532 nm, respectively. The presented study shows the potential of the particle depolarization ratio to track pollen grains in the atmosphere.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

Background: The effectiveness of allergen immunotherapy (AIT) in seasonal allergic rhinitis (AR) depends on the definition of pollen exposure intensity or time period.We recently evaluated pollen and symptom data from Germany to examine the new definitions of the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI) on pollen season and peak pollen period start and end. Now, we aim to confirm the feasibility of these definitions to properly mirror symptom loads for grass and birch polleninduced allergic rhinitis in other European geographical areas such as Austria, Finland and France, and therefore their suitability for AIT and clinical practice support.Methods: Data from twenty-three pollen monitoring stations from three countries in Europe and for 3 years (2014-2016) were used to investigate the correlation between birch and grass pollen concentrations during the birch and grass pollen season defined via the EAACI criteria, and total nasal symptom and medication scores as reported with the aid of the patient's hay-fever diary (PHD). In addition, we conducted a statistical analysis, together with a graphical investigation, to reveal correlations and dependencies between the studied parameters. Results:The analysis demonstrated that the definitions of pollen season as well as peak pollen period start and end as proposed by the EAACI are correlated to polleninduced symptom loads reported by PHD users during birch and grass pollen season. A statistically significant correlation (slightly higher for birch) has been found between the Total Nasal Symptom and Medication Score (TNSMS) and the pollen concentration levels. Moreover, the maximum symptom levels occurred mostly within the peak pollen periods (PPP) following the EAACI criteria. Conclusions:Based on our analyses, we confirm the validity of the EAACI definitions on pollen season for both birch and grass and for a variety of geographical locations for the four European countries (including Germany from a previous publication) analyzed so far. On this basis, the use of the EAACI definitions is supported in future clinical trials on AIT as well as in daily routine for optimal patient care. Further evaluation of the EAACI criteria in other European regions is recommended. K E Y W O R D Sallergen immunotherapy, allergic rhinitis, geographic differences, peak pollen period, pollen concentration, pollen season