No abstract

For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit http://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1-888-ASK-USGS (1-888-275-8747).For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://store.usgs.gov/.Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. AbstractWildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the Western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

Following wildfire, mountainous areas of the western United States are susceptible to debris flow during intense rainfall. Convective storms that can generate debris flows in recently burned areas may occur during or immediately after the wildfire, leaving insufficient time for development and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a method for estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards before wildfire using historical data to define the range of potential fire severities for a given location based on the statistical distribution of severity metrics obtained from remote sensing. Estimates of debris-flow likelihood, magnitude and triggering rainfall threshold based on the statistically simulated fire severity data provide hazard predictions consistent with those calculated from fire severity data collected after wildfire. Simulated fire severity data also produce hazard estimates that replicate observed debris-flow occurrence, rainfall conditions and magnitude at a monitored site in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. Future applications of this method should rely on a range of potential fire severity scenarios for improved pre-fire estimates of debris-flow hazard. The method presented here is also applicable to modelling other post-fire hazards, such as flooding and erosion risk, and for quantifying trends in observed fire severity in a changing climate.

Using observations from 688 debris flows, we analyse the hydrologic and landscape characteristics that influenced debris‐flow initiation mechanisms and locations in a watershed that had been partially burned by the 2012 Whitewater‐Baldy Complex Fire in the Gila Mountains, southern New Mexico. Debris flows can initiate due to different processes. Slopes can fail as discrete landslides and then become fluidized and move downstream as debris flows (landslide initiated) or progressive bulking of sediment from a distributed area can become channelized and concentrated as it moves downslope (runoff generated). In this study, we have an unusual opportunity to investigate both types of debris‐flow initiation mechanisms in our observations of debris flows, triggered by an exceptional rainstorm in the autumn of 2013. Additionally, we compare our observations with those of a dataset of 1138 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, triggered during the same weather system. We found that runoff‐generated debris flows dominated in burn areas, and runoff required to start these flows could be well characterized by the Shields stress. Landslide‐initiated debris flows were dominant in unburned areas. Debris‐flow densities were tied to total rainfall and precipitation intensities. Like the observations in the Colorado Front Range, debris‐flow initiation locations were found primarily in areas of relatively sparse vegetation on south‐facing slopes between 25 and 40°, and with upslope contributing areas less than 1000 m2. In terms of preferential locations for debris‐flow initiations, 2013 vegetation coverage, approximated by Green–Red Vegetation Index metrics, proved to be more influential than the 2012 burn‐severity designation. The uniformity of observations between our study area and those in the Colorado Front Range indicate that the underlying hydrologic and landscape patterns of the debris‐flow initiation locations documented in these studies could be applicable to the wider southwest and Rocky Mountain regions. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS.For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprodTo order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. AbstractWildfire can drastically increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although there is no way to know the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire, or the subsequent rainfall intensity and duration before it happens, probabilities of fire and debris-flow occurrence for different locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling efforts. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious, potential, debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in the unburned Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debrisflow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.The locations of the greatest debris-flow hazards correlate with the areas of steepest slopes and simulated crownfire behavior. The four subbasins with the highest computed debris-flow probabilities (greater than 98 percent) were all in the Manzano Mountains, two flowing east and two flowing west. Volumes in sixteen subbasins were greater than 50,000 square meters and most of these were in the central Manzanos and the western facing slopes of the Sandias.Five subbasins on the west-facing slopes of the Sandia Mountains, four of which have downstream reaches that lead into the outskirts of the City of Albuquerque, are among subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debrisflow hazard rankings. The bulk of the remaining subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings are located along the highest and steepest slopes of the Manzano Mountains. One of the subbasins is several miles upstream from the community of Tajique and another is several miles upstream from the community of Manzano, both on the eastern slopes of the Manzano Mountains.This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flo...

Wildfires can increase the frequency and magnitude of catastrophic debris flows. Integrated, proactive naturalhazard assessment would therefore characterize landscapes based on the potential for the occurrence and inter actions of wildfires and postwildfire debris flows. This chapter presents a new modeling effort that can quantify the variability surrounding a key input to postwildfire debris-flow modeling, the amount of watershed burned at moderate to high severity, in a prewildfire context. The use of stochastic wildfire simulation captures variabil ity surrounding the timing and location of ignitions, fire weather patterns, and ultimately the spatial patterns of watershed area burned. Model results provide for enhanced estimates of postwildfire debris-flow hazard in a prewildfire context, and multiple hazard metrics are generated to characterize and contrast hazards across watersheds. An area in northern New Mexico, USA, is presented as a case-study location, where postwildfire debris flows are a salient hazard and where land managers are actively pursuing mitigation efforts. Modeling results are described in terms of informing mitigation efforts. Limitations and future directions are presented.

For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS.For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. AbstractWildfire can substantially increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire or subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known, probabilities of fire and debris-flow occurrence for given locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious potential debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Jemez Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in both the unburned and previously burned areas of the Jemez Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris-flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Forest Service.Of the 4,998 subbasins modeled for this study, computed debris-flow probabilities in 671 subbasins were greater than 80 percent in response to the 100-year recurrence interval, 30-minute duration rainfall event. These subbasins ranged in size from 0.01 to 6.57 square kilometers (km 2 ), with an average area of 0.29 km 2 , and were mostly steep, upstream tributaries to larger channels in the area. Modeled debris-flow volumes in 465 subbasins were greater than 10,000 cubic meters (m 3

No abstract