Independent data from the Gulf of Mexico are used to develop and test the hypothesis that the same sequence of physical and ecological events each year allows the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis to become dominant. A phosphorus‐rich nutrient supply initiates phytoplankton succession, once deposition events of Saharan iron‐rich dust allow Trichodesmium blooms to utilize ubiquitous dissolved nitrogen gas within otherwise nitrogen‐poor sea water. They and the co‐occurring K. brevis are positioned within the bottom Ekman layers, as a consequence of their similar diel vertical migration patterns on the middle shelf. Upon onshore upwelling of these near‐bottom seed populations to CDOM‐rich surface waters of coastal regions, light‐inhibition of the small red tide of ∼1 ug chl l−1 of ichthytoxic K. brevis is alleviated. Thence, dead fish serve as a supplementary nutrient source, yielding large, self‐shaded red tides of ∼10 ug chl l−1.The source of phosphorus is mainly of fossil origin off west Florida, where past nutrient additions from the eutrophied Lake Okeechobee had minimal impact. In contrast, the P‐sources are of mainly anthropogenic origin off Texas, since both the nutrient loadings of Mississippi River and the spatial extent of the downstream red tides have increased over the last 100 years. During the past century and particularly within the last decade, previously cryptic Karenia spp. have caused toxic red tides in similar coastal habitats of other western boundary currents off Japan, China, New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa, downstream of the Gobi, Simpson, Great Western, and Kalahari Deserts, in a global response to both desertification and eutrophication.

[1] Previous hypotheses had suggested that upwelled intrusions of nutrient-rich Gulf of Mexico slope water onto the West Florida Shelf (WFS) led to formation of red tides of Karenia brevis. However, coupled biophysical models of (1) wind-and buoyancy-driven circulation, (2) three phytoplankton groups (diatoms, K. brevis, and microflagellates), (3) these slope water supplies of nitrate and silicate, and (4) selective grazing stress by copepods and protozoans found that diatoms won in one 1998 case of no light limitation by colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). The diatoms lost to K. brevis during another CDOM case of the models. In the real world, field data confirmed that diatoms were indeed the dominant phytoplankton after massive upwelling in 1998, when only a small red tide of K. brevis was observed. Over a 7-month period of the CDOM-free scenario the simulated total primary production of the phytoplankton community was $1.8 g C m À2 d À1 along the 40-m isobath of the northern WFS, with the largest accumulation of biomass on the Florida Middle Ground (FMG). Despite such photosynthesis, these models of the WFS yielded a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere during spring and summer and suggested a small sink in the fall. With diatom losses of 90% of their daily carbon fixation to herbivores the simulation supported earlier impressions of a short, diatom-based food web on the FMG, where organic carbon content of the surficial sediments is tenfold those of the surrounding seabeds. Farther south, the simulated near-bottom pools of ammonium were highest in summer, when silicon regeneration was minimal, leading to temporary Si limitation of the diatoms. Termination of these upwelled pulses of production by diatoms and nonsiliceous microflagellates mainly resulted from nitrate exhaustion in the model, however, mimicking most del 15 PON observations in the field. Yet, the CDOM-free case of the models failed to replicate the observed small red tide in December 1998, tagged with the del 15 N signature of nitrogen fixation. A large red tide of K. brevis did form in the CDOMrich case, when estuarine supplies of CDOM favored the growth of the shade-adapted, ungrazed dinoflagellates. The usual formation of large harmful algal blooms of >1 ug chl L À1(10 5 cells L À1 ) in the southern part of the WFS, between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, must instead depend upon local aeolian and estuarine supplies of nutrients and CDOM sun screen, not those from the shelf break. In the absence of slope water supplies, local upwelling instead focuses nitrate-poor innocula of co-occurring K. brevis and nitrogen fixers at coastal fronts for both aggregation and transfer of nutrients between these phytoplankton groups.

The spatial structure and temporal characteristics of sea breeze and the associated coastal ocean response in the northwest Gulf of Mexico are investigated using moored instruments, hydrographic stations, and wind measurements. Near the study area of 30°N, motions in the diurnal–inertial band (DIB) may be significantly enhanced by a near-resonant condition between local inertial and diurnal forcing frequencies. Wavelet analysis is used to quantify the results. Results indicate that diurnal sea-breeze variability peaks in summer and extends at least 300 km offshore with continuous seaward phase propagation. The maximum DIB oceanic response occurs in June when there is a shallow mixed layer, strong stratification, and an approximately 10-day period of continuous sea-breeze forcing. DIB current variance decreases in July and August as the consequence of the deepening of the mixed layer and a more variable phase relationship between the wind and current. River discharge varies interannually and can significantly alter the oceanic response during summer. The “great flood” of the Mississippi River in 1993 deepened the summer mixed layer and reduced the sea-breeze response during that year. Vertically, DIB currents are surface intensified, with a first baroclinic modal structure. The significance of these DIB motions on the shelf is that they can provide considerable vertical mixing in summer, as seen by the suppression of the bulk Richardson number (by a factor of 30) during strong DIB events. This provides a potential mechanism to ventilate seasonally occurring near-bottom hypoxic waters of the coastal ocean.

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