India's urban transition is salient to the growing emphasis on city responses to climate change. While projected to experience the largest global urban transition with significant infrastructure investment in the next few decades, the welfare of Indian cities remains poor, which complicates the implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This paper traces, synthesizes and characterizes the emerging literature on Indian urban climate debates. It discusses the arc of urban climate efforts, from an initial emphasis on climate vulnerabilities and risks, broadening over time to include climate mitigation. The paper examines the governance forms and political motivations with which such actions are pursued in cities and finds three overarching characteristics: the use of local development priorities as an entry point to climate mitigation and adaptation; the role of nonstate actors in promoting climate-relevant outcomes; and the proclivity for discrete project-based activities. The paper suggests that while a range of Indian cities are beginning to consider climate concerns, a larger strategic understanding of the interaction between climate and development priorities, across policy and governance levels, is yet to be developed. The future trajectory of urban India's responses to climate change will be shaped by the institutional prioritising, linking and integrating of urgent local development and mitigation and adaptation goals.This article is categorized under:
As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, but also as a developing country starting from a low emissions base, India is an important actor in global climate change mitigation. However, perceptions of India vary widely, from an energy-hungry climate deal-breaker to a forerunner of a low carbon future. Developing clarity on India's energy and emissions future is challenged by the uncertainties of India's development transitions, including its pathway through a demographic and urban transition within a rapidly changing policy context. Model-based scenario analyses provide widely varying projections, in part because they make differing assumptions, often implicit, about these transitions. To address the uncertainty in India's energy and emissions future, this letter applies a novel interpretive approach to existing scenario studies. First, we make explicit the implied development, technology and policy assumptions underlying model-based analysis in order to cluster and interpret results. In a second step, we analyse India's current policy landscape and use that as a benchmark against which to judge scenario assumptions and results. Using this interpretive approach, we conclude that, based on current policies, a doubling of India's CO 2 energy-related emissions from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound for its 2030 emissions and that this trajectory is consistent with meeting India's Paris emissions intensity pledge. Because of its low emissions starting point, even after a doubling, India's 2030 per capita emissions will be below today's global average and absolute emissions will be less than half of China's 2015 emissions from the same sources. The analysis of recent policy trends further suggests a lower than expected electricity demand and a faster than expected transition from coal to renewable electricity. The letter concludes by making an argument for interpretive approaches as a necessary complement to scenario analysis, particularly in rapidly changing development contexts.
Growing household energy demand, particularly in developing countries starting from a low base of consumption, is an important driver of current and future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, our understanding of transitioning residential energy demand in developing country contexts is limited. This paper discusses changing energy service demands in urban low-income households in India, an emerging economy where the largest future growth in energy demand globally is projected to occur, and where 12 million new low-income homes for the urban poor are to be built by the government between 2015 and 2022. Based on mixed quantitative and qualitative methods comprising of surveys, interviews and focus group discussions, we analyze two inter-related questions: how does the demand for energy services change as the ability of low-income households to consume increases; and how do energy related behaviors influence household electricity consumption? We analyze the data collected to rank households according to their ability to consume and to identify the types of, and progression in, energy services acquired. The appliances and associated services pursued are lights, fans, televisions, and refrigerators, with varied energy efficiencies. Analogously, we quantify the influence of behavior in determining electricity consumption, and show that the inclusion of socio-demographic and behavioral factors explain a significant proportion (51%) of the variance in household electricity consumption, along with the role of material factors such as building physical characteristics and appliance stocks. We complement the statistical analysis with qualitative fieldwork and discuss changing energy related behaviors as the ability of households to consume increases. We conclude with recommendations for climate actions that are compatible with development in the growing lowincome housing stock.
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