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SummaryThe North Wyke Farm Platform was established as a United Kingdom national capability for collaborative research, training and knowledge exchange in agro‐environmental sciences. Its remit is to research agricultural productivity and ecosystem responses to different management practices for beef and sheep production in lowland grasslands. A system based on permanent pasture was implemented on three 21‐ha farmlets to obtain baseline data on hydrology, nutrient cycling and productivity for 2 years. Since then two farmlets have been modified by either (i) planned reseeding with grasses that have been bred for enhanced sugar content or deep‐rooting traits or (ii) sowing grass and legume mixtures to reduce nitrogen fertilizer inputs. The quantities of nutrients that enter, cycle within and leave the farmlets were evaluated with data recorded from sensor technologies coupled with more traditional field study methods. We demonstrate the potential of the farm platform approach with a case study in which we investigate the effects of the weather, field topography and farm management activity on surface runoff and associated pollutant or nutrient loss from soil. We have the opportunity to do a full nutrient cycling analysis, taking account of nutrient transformations in soil, and flows to water and losses to air. The NWFP monitoring system is unique in both scale and scope for a managed land‐based capability that brings together several technologies that allow the effect of temperate grassland farming systems on soil moisture levels, runoff and associated water quality dynamics to be studied in detail.Highlights Can meat production systems be developed that are productive yet minimize losses to the environment?The data are from an intensively instrumented capability, which is globally unique and topical.We use sensing technologies and surveys to show the effect of pasture renewal on nutrient losses.Platforms provide evidence of the effect of meteorology, topography and farm activity on nutrient loss.

Abstract:To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non-parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960-1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1-A, HadCM3, NCAR-CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R 2 about 0Ð7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R 2 D 0Ð94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge ( 3%, 2005-2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction ( 9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about 15%) and annual flows (about 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies.

In this article, we modify bioenergy model MiscanFor investigating global and UK potentials for Miscanthus × giganteus as a bioenergy resource for carbon capture in the 21st century under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario using SSP2 land use projections. UK bioenergy land projections begin in the 2040s, 60 year average is 0.47 Mega ha rising to 1.9 Mega ha (2090s). Our projections estimate UK energy generation of 0.09 EJ/year (60 year average) and 0.37 EJ/year (2090s), under stable miscanthus yields of 12 t ha−1 year−1. We estimate aggregated UK soil carbon (C) increases of 0.09 Mt C/year (60 year average) and 0.14 Mt C/year (2090s) with C capture plus sequestration rate of 2.8 Mt C/year (60 year average) and 10.49 Mt C/year (2090s). Global bioenergy land use begins in 2010, 90 year average is 0.13 Gha rising to 0.19 Gha by the 2090s, miscanthus projections give a 90 year average energy generation of 16 EJ/year, rising to 26.7 EJ/year by the 2090s. The largest national capabilities for yield, energy and C increase are projected to be Brazil and China. Ninety year average global miscanthus yield of 1 Gt/year will be 1.7 Gt/year by the 2090s. Global soil C sequestration increases less with time, from a century average of 73.6 Mt C/year to 42.9 Mt C/year by the 2090s with C capture plus sequestration rate of 0.54 Gt C/year (60 year average) and 0.81 Gt C/year (2090s). M. giganteus could provide just over 5% of the bioenergy requirement by the 2090s to satisfy the RCP 2.6 SSP2 climate scenario. The choice of global land use data introduces a potential source of error. In reality, multiple bioenergy sources will be used, best suited to local conditions, but results highlight global requirements for development in bioenergy crops, infrastructure and support.

Simulation models represent soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in global carbon (C) cycle scenarios to support climate‐change studies. It is imperative to increase confidence in long‐term predictions of SOC dynamics by reducing the uncertainty in model estimates. We evaluated SOC simulated from an ensemble of 26 process‐based C models by comparing simulations to experimental data from seven long‐term bare‐fallow (vegetation‐free) plots at six sites: Denmark (two sites), France, Russia, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The decay of SOC in these plots has been monitored for decades since the last inputs of plant material, providing the opportunity to test decomposition without the continuous input of new organic material. The models were run independently over multi‐year simulation periods (from 28 to 80 years) in a blind test with no calibration (Bln) and with the following three calibration scenarios, each providing different levels of information and/or allowing different levels of model fitting: (a) calibrating decomposition parameters separately at each experimental site (Spe); (b) using a generic, knowledge‐based, parameterization applicable in the Central European region (Gen); and (c) using a combination of both (a) and (b) strategies (Mix). We addressed uncertainties from different modelling approaches with or without spin‐up initialization of SOC. Changes in the multi‐model median (MMM) of SOC were used as descriptors of the ensemble performance. On average across sites, Gen proved adequate in describing changes in SOC, with MMM equal to average SOC (and standard deviation) of 39.2 (±15.5) Mg C/ha compared to the observed mean of 36.0 (±19.7) Mg C/ha (last observed year), indicating sufficiently reliable SOC estimates. Moving to Mix (37.5 ± 16.7 Mg C/ha) and Spe (36.8 ± 19.8 Mg C/ha) provided only marginal gains in accuracy, but modellers would need to apply more knowledge and a greater calibration effort than in Gen, thereby limiting the wider applicability of models.

Miscanthus, a C4 perennial rhizomatous grass from Asia is a leading candidate for the supply of sustainable biomass needed to grow the bioeconomy. European Miscanthus breeding programmes have recently produced a new range of seeded hybrids with the objective of increasing scalability to large acreages limited by current clonal propagation. For the EU-GRACE project new replicated field trials were established in seven locations across Europe in 2018 with eight intraspecific M. sinensis hybrids (sin×sin) and six M. sacchariflorus × M. sinensis (sac×sin) from Dutch and UK breeding programmes respectively with clonal Miscanthus × giganteus. The planting density of the sin×sin was double that of sac×sin (30,000 & 15,000 plants ha -1 ), creating commercially relevant upscaling comparisons between systems. Over the first three years, the establishment depended on location and hybrid. The mature sin×sin hybrids formed tight tufts of shoots up to 2.5 m tall which flower and senesce earlier than the taller sac×sin hybrids. Following the third growing season, the highest yields were recorded in Northern Italy at a low altitude (average 13.7 (max 21) Mg DM ha -1 ) and the lowest yielding was on the industrially damaged marginal land site in Northern France (average 7.0 (max 10) Mg DM ha -1 ). Moisture contents at spring harvest were lowest in Croatia (21.7%) and highest in Wales, UK (41.6%). Overall, lower moisture contents at harvest, which are highly desirable for transport, storage and for most end-use applications, were found in sin×sin hybrids than sac×sin (30 and 40% respectively). Yield depended on climate interactions with the hybrid and their associated planting systems. The sin×sin hybrids appeared better adapted to northern Europe and sac×sin hybrids to southern Europe. Longer-term yield observations over crop lifespans will be needed to explore the biological (yield persistence) and economic costs and benefits of the different hybrid systems.

Climate data were taken from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Second Generation Global Circulation Model (GCMII) and the more recently developed Canadian Coupled Global Circulation Model with aerosol (CGCM1-A 6°C (GCMII) and 3.0°to 3.3°C (CGCM1-A). Precipitation is predicted to have a mean increase of 29 to 36% (GCMII) and 3 to 7% (CGCM1-A). Both the GCMII and CGCM1-A indicate that central Alberta will benefit the most during the summer and winter from increased precipitation, the eastern Prairies, however, will see little change (winter) in precipitation with smaller increases (30 mm under GCMII) or a decrease (30 mm under CGCM1-A). Overall, the CGCM1-A results are more consistent than GCMII with historic large-scale spatial patterns. RÉSUMÉ [traduit par la rédaction] On a utiliséles données climatiques provenant du modèle de circulation générale de deuxième génération (GCMII) du Centre canadien de modélisation et d'analyse climatiques (CCMAC) et du modèle de circulation générale couplé canadien avec aérosol (CGCM1-A) mis au point plus récemment. On a utilisé la différence entre les sorties des GCM avec la concentration de CO

This study investigates the condition of commercial miscanthus fields, growers’ concerns and reasons for growing the crop and also the modelling of a realistic commercial yield. Juvenile and mature Miscanthus × giganteus crops of varying age are surveyed in growers’ fields across mid‐England. We record in‐field plant density counts and the morphology of crops of different ages. Mature crops thrive on both clay and sandy soils. Plants surveyed appear robust to drought, weeds and disease, the only vulnerability is rhizome condition when planting. Mature miscanthus planted pre‐2014 continues to develop, spreading into planting gaps and growing more tillers. In stands planted post‐2014, improved planting techniques reduce planting gaps and create a reasonably consistent planting density of 12,500 plants/ha. The main reason for growers' investment in miscanthus is not financial return, but relates to its low requirement for field operations, low maintenance cost and regeneration. This offers practical solutions for difficult field access and social acceptability near public places (related to spray operations and crop vandalism). Wildlife is abundant in these fields, largely undisturbed except for harvest. This contributes to the greening of agriculture; fields are also used for gamebird cover and educational tours. This crop is solving practical problems for growers while improving the environment. Observed yield data indicate gradual yield increase with crop age, a yield plateau but no yield decrease since 2006. In stands with low planting densities, yields plateau after 9 years. Surveyed yield data are used to parameterize the MiscanFor bioenergy model. This produces options to simulate either juvenile yields or a yield for a landscape containing different aged crops. For mature English crop yields of 12 t ha−1 year−1, second‐ and third‐year juvenile harvests average 7 t ha−1 year−1 and a surrounding 10 km by 10 km area of distributed crop age would average 9 t ha−1 year−1.