The need for a good understanding of the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth has become a significant concern in national development. Both sectors play an essential role in formulating income distribution policies and reducing poverty, evidence from Eastern Indonesia. This paper, therefore, empirically analyzes the contribution of the financial inclusion to economic growth, poverty alleviation and income inequality in Eastern Indonesia. The Toda-Yamamoto VAR bivariate causality model and the dynamic Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) were the two approaches used in this research. The effect and relationship of financial inclusion on economic growth, poverty, inequality and other factors were analyzed using PVAR, and Toda-Yamamoto VAR bivariate causality model, respectively. The results of the bivariate causality model indicate a high relationship level between financial inclusion, economic growth, poverty, and income distribution in Eastern Indonesia. The socio-economic growth has a positive impact on the level of financial inclusion, with a negative impact on poverty. Meanwhile, financial inclusion has a positive effect on inequality, which leads to widespread income inequality in Eastern Indonesia.

In Indonesian tobacco, excise tax policy never decrease every year. As a result, the number of tobacco industries sharply declines, however the prevalence of tobacco smoking steadily increase since 1995. Therefore, this research aims to estimate the increase of tobacco excise tax and its impact on cigarette consumption, government revenue, and the possibility of cigarette sold illegally. There are two analytical model, Logit and Tobit. Logit model is used to estimate the impact of cigarette price towards the probability of household member to smoke or not, and Tobit model is used to estimate the impact of price change towards the amount of cigarette consumption. Tobit model is employed since it include non-smoker household, covering 40% of total household. The estimation is based on SUSENAS published on March 2017. The result suggests increasing cigarette prices does not lessen people desire to be smokers; indicating that most Indonesian consider cigarette as basic needs. Consequently, the increase of tobacco excise tax leads to the growth of government revenue and number of illegally sold cigarette. Therefore, it conclude that large-scale industries benefit the most, when this result is linked to the decrease of tobacco industries data. Meanwhile, Indonesian people may get the benefit, if the government revenue is appropriately allocated to stimulate economic and development.

No abstract

pemunculan usaha produktif dengan potofolio manjemen keuangan rumah tangga untuk masa depan.

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the current account and budget deficit (twin deficits hypothesis), measuring the account performance and other macroeconomic indicators in predicting the debt crisis in Indonesia. Furthermore, the data used for hypothesis was obtained from 2004q1-2017q4, followed by the application of the ARDL method, while values based on debt crisis were taken from the year 1981-2017, and indicators performance measurement required the use of Early Warning System (EWS) method, which was conducted through Quadratic Probability Score (QPS), and Global Squared Bias (GSB). The results indicate a longterm positive relationship between the current account and budget deficit (twin deficits), while the short-term studies reveal a negative association termed twin divergence, which occur on instances where a country has high savings rate. Furthermore, it was established that the current account deficit towards predicting the debt crisis in Indonesia was of a low performance, and the leading macroeconomic indicators include short-term debtforeign exchange reserves, the temporary debt-total external type, M2-foreign exchange reserves, inflation, IMF, and domestic credit-GDP. Therefore, the EWS model possesses 60% predictive abilities and an NTSR of 0.25, where the QPS value obtained was 0.373, and that of GSB was 0.005.