BackgroundIn the Indian subcontinent, about 200 million people are at risk of developing visceral leishmaniasis (VL). In 2005, the governments of India, Nepal and Bangladesh started the first regional VL elimination program with the aim to reduce the annual incidence to less than 1 per 10,000 by 2015. A mathematical model was developed to support this elimination program with basic quantifications of transmission, disease and intervention parameters. This model was used to predict the effects of different intervention strategies.Methods and FindingsParameters on the natural history of Leishmania infection were estimated based on a literature review and expert opinion or drawn from a community intervention trial (the KALANET project). The transmission dynamic of Leishmania donovani is rather slow, mainly due to its long incubation period and the potentially long persistence of parasites in infected humans. Cellular immunity as measured by the Leishmanin skin test (LST) lasts on average for roughly one year, and re-infection occurs in intervals of about two years, with variation not specified. The model suggests that transmission of L. donovani is predominantly maintained by asymptomatically infected hosts. Only patients with symptomatic disease were eligible for treatment; thus, in contrast to vector control, the treatment of cases had almost no effect on the overall intensity of transmission.ConclusionsTreatment of Kala-azar is necessary on the level of the individual patient but may have little effect on transmission of parasites. In contrast, vector control or exposure prophylaxis has the potential to efficiently reduce transmission of parasites. Based on these findings, control of VL should pay more attention to vector-related interventions. Cases of PKDL may appear after years and may initiate a new outbreak of disease; interventions should therefore be long enough, combined with an active case detection and include effective treatment.
The elimination of infectious diseases requires reducing transmission below a certain threshold. The Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) Elimination Initiative in Southeast Asia aims to reduce the annual VL incidence rate below 1 case per 10,000 inhabitants in endemic areas by 2015 via a combination of case management and vector control. Using a previously developed VL transmission model, we investigated transmission thresholds dependent on measures reducing the sand fly density either by killing sand flies (e.g., indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticidal nets) or by destroying breeding sites (e.g., environmental management).Model simulations suggest that elimination of VL is possible if the sand fly density can be reduced by 67% through killing sand flies, or if the number of breeding sites can be reduced by more than 79% through measures of environmental management.These results were compared to data from two recent cluster randomised controlled trials conducted in India, Nepal and Bangladesh showing a 72% reduction in sand fly density after indoor residual spraying, a 44% and 25% reduction through the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets and a 42% reduction after environmental management.Based on model predictions, we identified the parameters within the transmission cycle of VL that predominantly determine the prospects of intervention success. We suggest further research to refine model-based predictions into the elimination of VL.
BackgroundPentavalent antimonials have been the mainstay of antileishmanial therapy for decades, but increasing failure rates under antimonial treatment have challenged further use of these drugs in the Indian subcontinent. Experimental evidence has suggested that parasites which are resistant against antimonials have superior survival skills than sensitive ones even in the absence of antimonial treatment.Methods and FindingsWe use simulation studies based on a mathematical L. donovani transmission model to identify parameters which can explain why treatment failure rates under antimonial treatment increased up to 65% in Bihar between 1980 and 1997. Model analyses suggest that resistance to treatment alone cannot explain the observed treatment failure rates. We explore two hypotheses referring to an increased fitness of antimony-resistant parasites: the additional fitness is (i) disease-related, by causing more clinical cases (higher pathogenicity) or more severe disease (higher virulence), or (ii) is transmission-related, by increasing the transmissibility from sand flies to humans or vice versa.ConclusionsBoth hypotheses can potentially explain the Bihar observations. However, increased transmissibility as an explanation appears more plausible because it can occur in the background of asymptomatically transmitted infection whereas disease-related factors would most probably be observable. Irrespective of the cause of fitness, parasites with a higher fitness will finally replace sensitive parasites, even if antimonials are replaced by another drug.
The homogeneity of the schemes for follow-up care after curative surgical treatment of early breast cancer is still a matter of debate in Germany. We investigated whether symptom-oriented follow-up is equivalent in terms of survival rates to conventional surveillance based on scheduled tests. Patients and Methods: In a prospective, non-randomised, multicentre cohort study carried out between 1995 and 2000, 244 patients underwent a conventional follow-up (scheduled laboratory tests including CEA and CA 15-3, chest X-rays and liver ultrasound). 426 patients were monitored in a symptomoriented manner (additional tests only in the case of symptoms indicating possible recurrence). Mammography, structured histories and physical examinations were done regularly in both branches. 1,108 patients did not participate in the project. They represent ‘real world patients’, unaffected by the implications of a study. Results: The symptom-oriented follow- up group produced results not inferior to those of the intensive one (p < 0.05) in terms of overall and relapse-free survival. Furthermore, no difference was indicated in terms of overall survival between study participants and the ‘real world patients’ (p = 0.316). Conclusion: The results confirm that regular imaging and laboratory tests have no relevant effect on overall survival of patients after curative primary therapy of early breast cancer and support the implementation of a symptom-oriented routine follow-up.
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