Since 2003, the territory of Iraq there were many military conflicts and conducted a large number of terrorist operations, especially in the capital Baghdad.As a result, construction work in Baghdad began to increase after 2003, which led to an increase in construction risks. The most dangerous risks were military conflicts that occurred near the construction site and affected the workforce, equipment and the construction site itself. The purpose of the study is to identify the most important factors causing risks during construction in Baghdad due to military operations and terrorist threats, to assess the degree of impact of these factors on the duration, cost and quality of construction work, as well as on the safety of workers and the economic situation of construction enterprises. The object of the study is the Al-Radwaniyah residential complex under construction in Baghdad, which is located near the US military base. In the course of the study, the most important military factors causing risks were identified, and then a questionnaire survey was conducted to determine the degree of impact of these factors among employees of enterprises involved in the construction of the specified residential complex (contractors, engineers, consultants, etc.). After processing the results of the questionnaire, the risk factors were analysed using a statistical method. This made it possible to establish the degree of impact of each factor. The study showed the degree of influence of military factors that cause risks, in particular, on the safety and life of workers, the impact on the psychological and social state of the working staff in general. It was also found that sudden military clashes and terrorist operations in the study region have a negative impact on the economic and financial situation of the construction project, lead to a delay in the project and increase its cost. Therefore, it is necessary to look for solutions to avoid or reduce these factors in areas where there is a possibility of their sudden occurrence.
Many changes have occurred in the construction industry over the past few years as a result of the development of technologies and specifications of the materials used and modern technologies, which led to an increase in the accuracy and speed of implementation of various stages of the project life cycle, and it became important to anticipate external and internal risks of the project and plan a response to these risks, since they have the effect of an unaccounted price increase and an excess of the contract period. From this perspective, risk assessment was a necessary tool to determine the risks to which the project was exposed in order to find the best way to deal with them. The aim of the study is to identify the most significant types of risk factors faced by the construction industry, which lead to exceeding the specified time for implementation and to large losses, which helps stakeholders in this area to predict potential obstacles and be able to quickly make appropriate decisions. To achieve this goal, a questionnaire survey was conducted to collect information from specialists in the construction industry, as well as references in this field to express an opinion on the intensity of the impact of each studied risk factor. Thereafter, Monte Carlo simulations were used to assess the risk factors studied. The study found that Monte Carlo simulations, which depend on repeated scenarios hundreds or thousands of times, can provide an accurate estimate of the risks faced by investment and construction projects in conditions of uncertainty.
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