We present a method to flexibly and self-consistently determine individual galaxies' star formation rates (SFRs) from their host haloes' potential well depths, assembly histories, and redshifts. The method is constrained by galaxies' observed stellar mass functions, SFRs (specific and cosmic), quenched fractions, UV luminosity functions, UV-stellar mass relations, autocorrelation functions (including quenched and star-forming subsamples), and quenching dependence on environment; each observable is reproduced over the full redshift range available, up to 0 < z < 10. Key findings include: galaxy assembly correlates strongly with halo assembly; quenching at z > 1 correlates strongly with halo mass; quenched fractions at fixed halo mass decrease with increasing redshift; massive quenched galaxies reside in higher-mass haloes than star-forming galaxies at fixed galaxy mass; star-forming and quenched galaxies' star formation histories at fixed mass differ most at z < 0.5; satellites have large scatter in quenching timescales after infall, and have modestly higher quenched fractions than central galaxies; Planck cosmologies result in up to 0.3 dex lower stellar-halo mass ratios at early times; and, nonetheless, stellar mass-halo mass ratios rise at z > 5. Also presented are revised stellar mass-halo mass relations for all, quenched, star-forming, central, and satellite galaxies; the dependence of star formation histories on halo mass, stellar mass, and galaxy SSFR; quenched fractions and quenching timescale distributions for satellites; and predictions for higher-redshift galaxy correlation functions and weak lensing surface densities. The public data release includes the massively parallel (> 10 5 cores) implementation (the UNI-VERSEMACHINE), the newly compiled and remeasured observational data, derived galaxy formation constraints, and mock catalogs including lightcones.

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Methods that exploit galaxy clustering to constrain the galaxy-halo relationship, such as the halo occupation distribution (HOD) and conditional luminosity function (CLF), assume halo mass alone suffices to determine a halo's galaxy content. Yet, halo clustering strength depends upon properties other than mass, such as formation time, an effect known as assembly bias. If galaxy characteristics are correlated with these auxiliary halo properties, the basic assumption of standard HOD/CLF methods is violated. We estimate the potential for assembly bias to induce systematic errors in inferred halo occupation statistics. We construct realistic mock galaxy catalogues that exhibit assembly bias as well as companion mock catalogues with identical HODs, but with assembly bias removed. We fit HODs to the galaxy clustering in each catalogue. In the absence of assembly bias, the inferred HODs describe the true HODs well, validating the methodology. However, in all cases with assembly bias, the inferred HODs exhibit significant systematic errors. We conclude that the galaxy-halo relationship inferred from galaxy clustering is subject to significant systematic errors induced by assembly bias. Efforts to model and/or constrain assembly bias should be priorities as assembly bias is a threatening source of systematic error in galaxy evolution and precision cosmology studies.

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