The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

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Leaf chemical and spectral properties of 162 canopy species were measured at 11 tropical forest sites along a 6024 mm precipitation/yr and 8.7 degrees C climate gradient in Queensland, Australia. We found that variations in foliar nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll a and b, and carotenoid concentrations, as well as specific leaf area (SLA), were expressed more strongly among species within a site than along the entire climate gradient. Integrated chemical signatures consisting of all leaf properties did not aggregate well at the genus or family levels. Leaf chemical diversity was maximal in the lowland tropical forest sites with the highest temperatures and moderate precipitation levels. Cooler and wetter montane tropical forests contained species with measurably lower variation in their chemical signatures. Foliar optical properties measured from 400 to 2500 nm were also highly diverse at the species level, and were well correlated with an ensemble of leaf chemical properties and SLA (r2 = 0.54-0.83). A probabilistic diversity model amplified the leaf chemical differences among species, revealing that lowland tropical forests maintain a chemical diversity per unit richness far greater than that of higher elevation forests in Australia. Modeled patterns in spectral diversity and species richness paralleled those of chemical diversity, demonstrating a linkage between the taxonomic and remotely sensed properties of tropical forest canopies. We conclude that species are the taxonomic unit causing chemical variance in Australian tropical forest canopies, and thus ecological and remote sensing studies should consider the role that species play in defining the functional properties of these forests.

Abstract. Through interpretations of remote-sensing data and/or theoretical propositions, the idea that forest and savanna represent "alternative stable states" is gaining increasing acceptance. Filling an observational gap, we present detailed stratified floristic and structural analyses for forest and savanna stands located mostly within zones of transition (where both vegetation types occur in close proximity) in Africa, South America and Australia. Woody plant leaf area index variation was related to tree canopy cover in a similar way for both savanna and forest with substantial overlap between the two vegetation types. As total woody plant canopy cover increased, so did the relative contribution of middle and lower strata of woody vegetation. Herbaceous layer cover declined as woody cover increased. This pattern of understorey grasses and herbs progressively replaced by shrubs as the canopy closes over was found for both savanna and forests and on all continents. Thus, once subordinate woody canopy layers are taken into account, a less marked transition in woody plant cover across the savanna–forest-species discontinuum is observed compared to that inferred when trees of a basal diameter > 0.1 m are considered in isolation. This is especially the case for shrub-dominated savannas and in taller savannas approaching canopy closure. An increased contribution of forest species to the total subordinate cover is also observed as savanna stand canopy closure occurs. Despite similarities in canopy-cover characteristics, woody vegetation in Africa and Australia attained greater heights and stored a greater amount of above-ground biomass than in South America. Up to three times as much above-ground biomass is stored in forests compared to savannas under equivalent climatic conditions. Savanna–forest transition zones were also found to typically occur at higher precipitation regimes for South America than for Africa. Nevertheless, consistent across all three continents coexistence was found to be confined to a well-defined edaphic–climate envelope with soil and climate the key determinants of the relative location of forest and savanna stands. Moreover, when considered in conjunction with the appropriate water availability metrics, it emerges that soil exchangeable cations exert considerable control on woody canopy-cover extent as measured in our pan-continental (forest + savanna) data set. Taken together these observations do not lend support to the notion of alternate stable states mediated through fire feedbacks as the prime force shaping the distribution of the two dominant vegetation types of the tropical lands.