A total of 31,989 participants were enrolled from 126 research centers in the United States and Canada (15,991 were randomly assigned to receive IIV3-HD, and 15,998 to receive IIV3-SD). In the intention-to-treat analysis, 228 participants in the IIV3-HD group (1.4%) and 301 participants in the IIV3-SD group (1.9%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza caused by any viral type or subtype associated with a protocol-defined influenza-like illness (relative efficacy, 24.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.7 to 36.5). At least one serious adverse event during the safety surveillance period was reported by 1323 (8.3%) of the participants in the IIV3-HD group, as compared with 1442 (9.0%) of the participants in the IIV3-SD group (relative risk, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.99). After vaccination, HAI titers and seroprotection rates (the percentage of participants with HAI titers ≥ 1:40) were significantly higher in the IIV3-HD group. Conclusions: Among persons 65 years of age or older, IIV3-HD induced significantly higher antibody responses and provided better protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza illness than did IIV3-SD. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01427309.).

The highly sensitive gamma interferon (IFN-␥) enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISPOT) assay permits the investigation of the role of cell-mediated immunity (CMI) in the protection of young children against influenza. Preliminary studies of young children confirmed that the IFN-␥ ELISPOT assay was a more sensitive measure of influenza memory immune responses than serum antibody and that among seronegative children aged 6 to <36 months, an intranasal dose of 10 7 fluorescent focus units (FFU) of a live attenuated influenza virus vaccine (CAIV-T) elicited substantial CMI responses. A commercial inactivated influenza virus vaccine elicited CMI responses only in children with some previous exposure to related influenza viruses as determined by detectable antibody levels prevaccination. The role of CMI in actual protection against community-acquired, culture-confirmed clinical influenza by CAIV-T was investigated in a large randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled dose-ranging efficacy trial with 2,172 children aged 6 to <36 months in the Philippines and Thailand. The estimated protection curve indicated that the majority of infants and young children with >100 spot-forming cells/10 6 peripheral blood mononuclear cells were protected against clinical influenza, establishing a possible target level of CMI for future influenza vaccine development. The ELISPOT assay for IFN-␥ is a sensitive and reproducible measure of CMI and memory immune responses and contributes to establishing requirements for the future development of vaccines against influenza, especially those used for children.

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Compared to IIV-SD, IIV-HD reduced the risk of SAEs possibly related to influenza. The observed relative effectiveness against serious pneumonia is particularly noteworthy considering the burden of influenza and pneumonia in older adults.

Immunological assays measure characteristics of the immune system, such as antibody levels, specific to certain diseases. High assay values are often associated with protection from disease. A question of interest is how the relationship between assay values and subsequent development of disease should be quantitatively modelled. Existing approaches successfully model the relationship for high assay values, where the probability of developing disease is low. However at low assay values, the probability of developing disease is more closely associated with factors such as disease prevalence rates and an individual's chance of exposure to infection; these are less well captured by existing models. This paper presents a model that accommodates both assay values and factors independent of assay values, enabling protection from disease to be modelled over the whole range of assay values and proposing a method for predicting the efficacy of a vaccine from the assays of vaccinees and non-vaccinees.

Although a number of studies have investigated and quantified immune correlates of protection against influenza in adults and children, data on immune protection in the elderly are sparse. A recent vaccine efficacy trial comparing standard-dose with high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine in persons 65 years of age and older provided the opportunity to examine the relationship between values of three immunologic assays and protection against community-acquired A/H3N2 influenza illness. The high-dose vaccine induced significantly higher antibody titers than the standard-dose vaccine for all assays. For the hemagglutination inhibition assay, a titer of 40 was found to correspond with 50% protection when the assay virus was antigenically well matched to the circulating virus—the same titer as is generally recognized for 50% protection in younger adults. A dramatically higher titer was required for 50% protection when the assay virus was a poor match to the circulating virus. With the well-matched virus, some protection was seen at the lowest titers; with the poorly matched virus, high levels of protection were not achieved even at the highest titers. Strong associations were also seen between virus neutralization test titers and protection, but reliable estimates for 50% protection were not obtained. An association was seen between titers of an enzyme-linked lectin assay for antineuraminidase N2 antibodies and protection; in particular, the proportion of treatment effect explained by assay titer in models that included both this assay and one of the other assays was consistently higher than in models that included either assay alone. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01427309.)

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Estimates of relative efficacy consistently favored IIV-HD over IIV-SD. There was no significant evidence that baseline age, comorbidity, or frailty modified the efficacy of IIV-HD relative to IIV-SD. IIV-HD significantly improved HAI responses for all strains and in all subgroups. IIV-HD is likely to provide benefits beyond IIV-SD for adults ≥65 years, irrespective of age and presence of comorbid or frailty conditions.