No abstract

errors are my own. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Policymakers have implemented a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the spread of COVID-19. Variation in policies across jurisdictions and over time strongly suggests a differencein-differences (DD) research design to estimate causal effects of counter-COVID measures. We discuss threats to the validity of these DD designs and make recommendations about how researchers can avoid bias, interpret results accurately, and provide sound guidance to policymakers seeking to protect public health and facilitate an eventual economic recovery.

Abstract:This paper provides new evidence that Medicaid's introduction reduced mortality among nonwhite infants and children in the 1960s and 1970s. Mandated coverage of all cash welfare recipients induced substantial cross-state variation in the share of children immediately eligible for the program. Before Medicaid, higher-and lower-eligibility states had similar infant and child mortality trends. After Medicaid, public insurance utilization increased and mortality fell more rapidly among children and infants in high-Medicaid-eligibility states. Mortality among nonwhite children on Medicaid fell by 20 percent, leading to a reduction in aggregate nonwhite child mortality rates of 11 percent.JEL Codes: I13, J10, N32.

This paper uses the rollout of the first Community Health Centers (CHCs) to estimate the longterm health effects of increasing access to primary care. The results show that CHCs reduced age-adjusted mortality rates among those 50 and older by almost 2 percent within 10 years. The implied 6-to 8-percent decrease in one-year mortality risk among the treated amounts to 18 to 24 percent of the 1966 poor-nonpoor mortality gap for this age group. Large effects for those 65 and older suggest that increased access to primary care has long-term benefits, even for populations with near universal health insurance.

This paper uses the rollout of the first Community Health Centers (CHCs) to study the longer-term health effects of increasing access to primary care. Within ten years, CHCs are associated with a reduction in age-adjusted mortality rates of 2 percent among those 50 and older. The implied 7 to 13 percent decrease in one-year mortality risk among beneficiaries amounts to 20 to 40 percent of the 1966 poor/non-poor mortality gap for this age group. Large effects for those 65 and older suggest that increased access to primary care has longer-term benefits, even for populations with near universal health insurance. (JEL H75, I12, I13, I18, I32, I38, J14)

This paper estimates the long-run effects of childhood Medicaid eligibility on adult health and economic outcomes using the program’s original introduction ( 1966–1970) and its mandated coverage of welfare recipients. The design compares cohorts born in different years relative to Medicaid implementation, in states with different preexisting welfare-based eligibility. Early childhood Medicaid eligibility reduces mortality and disability, increases employment, and reduces receipt of disability transfer programs up to 50 years later. Medicaid has saved the government more than its original cost and saved more than 10 million quality adjusted life years. (JEL H51, I12, I18, I32, I38, J13)

and Vanderbilt University. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.