Precipitation nowcasting, the high-resolution forecasting of precipitation up to two hours ahead, supports the real-world socioeconomic needs of many sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision-making1,2. State-of-the-art operational nowcasting methods typically advect precipitation fields with radar-based wind estimates, and struggle to capture important non-linear events such as convective initiations3,4. Recently introduced deep learning methods use radar to directly predict future rain rates, free of physical constraints5,6. While they accurately predict low-intensity rainfall, their operational utility is limited because their lack of constraints produces blurry nowcasts at longer lead times, yielding poor performance on rarer medium-to-heavy rain events. Here we present a deep generative model for the probabilistic nowcasting of precipitation from radar that addresses these challenges. Using statistical, economic and cognitive measures, we show that our method provides improved forecast quality, forecast consistency and forecast value. Our model produces realistic and spatiotemporally consistent predictions over regions up to 1,536 km × 1,280 km and with lead times from 5–90 min ahead. Using a systematic evaluation by more than 50 expert meteorologists, we show that our generative model ranked first for its accuracy and usefulness in 89% of cases against two competitive methods. When verified quantitatively, these nowcasts are skillful without resorting to blurring. We show that generative nowcasting can provide probabilistic predictions that improve forecast value and support operational utility, and at resolutions and lead times where alternative methods struggle.
The recently-proposed Perceiver model obtains good results on several domains (images, audio, multimodal, point clouds) while scaling linearly in compute and memory with the input size. While the Perceiver supports many kinds of inputs, it can only produce very simple outputs such as class scores. Perceiver IO overcomes this limitation without sacrificing the original's appealing properties by learning to flexibly query the model's latent space to produce outputs of arbitrary size and semantics. Perceiver IO still decouples model depth from data size and still scales linearly with data size, but now with respect to both input and output sizes. The full Perceiver IO model achieves strong results on tasks with highly structured output spaces, such as natural language and visual understanding, StarCraft II, and multi-task and multi-modal domains. As highlights, Perceiver IO matches a Transformer-based BERT baseline on the GLUE language benchmark without the need for input tokenization and achieves state-of-the-art performance on Sintel optical flow estimation. Code: https://dpmd.ai/perceiver-code Preprint. Under review.
ordered alphabetically, † Equal contributions, ordered alphabetically, ‡ Equal senior contributions Building models that can be rapidly adapted to numerous tasks using only a handful of annotated examples is an open challenge for multimodal machine learning research. We introduce Flamingo, a family of Visual Language Models (VLM) with this ability. Flamingo models include key architectural innovations to: (i) bridge powerful pretrained vision-only and language-only models, (ii) handle sequences of arbitrarily interleaved visual and textual data, and (iii) seamlessly ingest images or videos as inputs. Thanks to their flexibility, Flamingo models can be trained on large-scale multimodal web corpora containing arbitrarily interleaved text and images, which is key to endow them with in-context few-shot learning capabilities. We perform a thorough evaluation of the proposed Flamingo models, exploring and measuring their ability to rapidly adapt to a variety of image and video understanding benchmarks. These include open-ended tasks such as visual question-answering, where the model is prompted with a question which it has to answer, captioning tasks, which evaluate the ability to describe a scene or an event, and close-ended tasks such as multiple choice visual question-answering. For tasks lying anywhere on this spectrum, we demonstrate that a single Flamingo model can achieve a new state of the art for few-shot learning, simply by prompting the model with task-specific examples. On many of these benchmarks, Flamingo actually surpasses the performance of models that are fine-tuned on thousands of times more task-specific data.
In this series of patients with BBS due to chronic pancreatitis, temporary PCMS placement achieved persistent stricture resolution in the majority of patients with acceptable complication rates. Comparative trials evaluating temporary PCMS placement and plastic stenting in patients with BBS due to chronic pancreatitis are needed.
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