This article evaluates horizontal daily global solar irradiation predictive modelling using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for its application in agricultural sciences and technologies. An eight year data series (i.e., training networks period between 2004–2010, with 2011 as the validation year) was measured at an agrometeorological station located in Castile and León, Spain, owned by the irrigation advisory system SIAR. ANN models were designed and evaluated with different neuron numbers in the input and hidden layers. The only neuron used in the outlet layer was the global solar irradiation simulated the day after. Evaluated values of the input data were the horizontal daily global irradiation of the current day [H(t)] and two days before [H(t−1), H(t−2)], the day of the year [J(t)], and the daily clearness index [Kt(t)]. Validated results showed that best adjustment models are the ANN 7 model (RMSE = 3.76 MJ/(m2·d), with two inputs ([H(t), Kt(t)]) and four neurons in the hidden layer) and the ANN 4 model (RMSE = 3.75 MJ/(m2·d), with two inputs ([H(t), J(t)]) and two neurons in the hidden layer). Thus, the studied ANN models had better results compared to classic methods (CENSOLAR typical year, weighted moving mean, linear regression, Fourier and Markov analysis) and are practically easier as they need less input variables.
Agrometeorological stations have horizontal solar irradiation data available, but the design and simulation of photovoltaic (PV) systems require data about the solar panel (inclined and/or oriented). Greenhouses for agricultural production, outside the large protected production areas, are usually off-grid; thus, the solar irradiation variable on the panel plane is critical for an optimal PV design. Modeling of solar radiation components (beam, diffuse, and ground-reflected) is carried out by calculating the extraterrestrial solar radiation, solar height, angle of incidence, and diffuse solar radiation. In this study, the modeling was done using Simulink-MATLAB blocks to facilitate its application, using the day of the year, the time of day, and the hourly horizontal global solar irradiation as input variables. The rest of the parameters (i.e., inclination, orientation, solar constant, albedo, latitude, and longitude) were fixed in each block. The results obtained using anisotropic models of diffuse solar irradiation of the sky in the region of Castile and León (Spain) showed improvements over the results obtained with isotropic models. This work enables the precise estimation of solar irradiation on a solar panel flexibly, for particular places, and with the best models for each of the components of solar radiation.
This study evaluates the predictive modeling of the daily ambient temperature (maximum, Tmax; average, Tave; and minimum, Tmin) and its hourly estimation (T0h, …, T23h) using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for agricultural applications. The data, 2004–2010, were used for training and 2011 for validation, recorded at the SIAR agrometeorological station of Mansilla Mayor (León). ANN models for daily prediction have three neurons in the output layer (Tmax(t + 1), Tave(t + 1), Tmin(t + 1)). Two models were evaluated: (1) with three entries (Tmax(t), Tave(t), Tmin(t)), and (2) adding the day of the year (J(t)). The inclusion of J(t) improves the predictions, with an RMSE for Tmax = 2.56, Tave = 1.65 and Tmin = 2.09 (°C), achieving better results than the classical statistical methods (typical year Tave = 3.64 °C; weighted moving mean Tmax = 2.76, Tave = 1.81 and Tmin = 2.52 (°C); linear regression Tave = 1.85 °C; and Fourier Tmax = 3.75, Tave = 2.67 and Tmin = 3.34 (°C)) for one year. The ANN models for hourly estimation have 24 neurons in the output layer (T0h(t), …, T23h(t)) corresponding to the mean hourly temperature. In this case, the inclusion of the day of the year (J(t)) does not significantly improve the estimations, with an RMSE = 1.25 °C, but it improves the results of the ASHRAE method, which obtains an RMSE = 2.36 °C for one week. The results obtained, with lower prediction errors than those achieved with the classical methods, confirm the interest in using the ANN models for predicting temperatures in agricultural applications.
The next day's global horizontal solar irradiation is predicted using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for its application in agricultural science and technology. The time series of eight−years data is measured in an agrometeorological station, which belongs to the SIAR irrigation system (Agroclimatic Information System for Irrigation, in Spanish), located in Prime Archives in Agronomy 3 www.videleaf.com Mansilla Mayor (León, Castile and León region, Spain). The zone has a Csb climate classification (i.e., Mediterranean Warm Summer Climate), according to Koppen−Geiger. The data for the years (2004−2010) are used for ANNs training and the 2011 as the validation year. ANN models were designed and evaluated with different numbers of inputs and neurons in the hidden layer. A neuron was used in the output layer, for all models, where the simulation of global solar irradiation for the next day on the horizontal surface results. Evaluated values of the input data were the horizontal daily global irradiation of the current day [H(t)] and two days before [H(t−1), H(t−2)], the day of the year [J(t)], and the daily clearness index [Kt(t)]. Validated results showed that best adjustment models are the ANN 7 model (RMSE = 3.76 MJ/(m 2 •d), with two inputs [H(t), Kt(t)] and four neurons in the hidden layer) and the ANN 4 model (RMSE = 3.75 MJ/(m 2 •d), with two inputs [H(t), J(t)] and two neurons in the hidden layer). Thus, the studied ANN models had better results compared to classic methods (CENSOLAR typical year, weighted moving mean, linear regression, Fourier and Markov analysis) and are practically easier as they need less input variables.
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