Crosscountry studies have found that hotter years are associated with lower output in poor countries. Using high-frequency micro-data from manufacturing firms in India, we show that worker heat stress can substantially explain this correlation. Ambient temperatures have non-linear effects on worker productivity, with declines on hot days of 4 to 9 percent per degree rise in temperature. Sustained heat also increases absenteeism. Similar temperature induced productivity declines are replicated in annual plant output from a national panel. Our estimates imply that warming between 1971 and 2009 may have decreased manufacturing output in India by at least 3 percent relative to a no-warming counterfactual.

Real-time information feedback delivered via technology has been reported to produce up to 20 percent declines in residential energy consumption.There are however large differences in estimates of the effect of real-time feedback technologies on energy use. In this study, we conduct a field experiment to obtain an estimate of the impact of a real-time feedback technology. Access to feedback leads to an average reduction in household electricity consumption of 5.7 percent. Significant declines persist for up to four weeks. In examining time of day reduction effects, we find that the largest reductions were observed initially at all times of the day but as time passes, morning and evening intervals show larger reductions. We find no convincing evidence that household characteristics explain heterogeneity in our treatment effects; we examine demographics, housing characteristics and psychological variables.

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This paper seeks to explain why billions of people in developing countries either have no access to electricity or lack a reliable supply. We present evidence that these shortfalls are a consequence of electricity being treated as a right and that this sets off a vicious four-step circle. In step 1, because a social norm has developed that all deserve power independent of payment, subsidies, theft, and nonpayment are widely tolerated. In step 2, electricity distribution companies lose money with each unit of electricity sold and in total lose large sums of money. In step 3, government-owned distribution companies ration supply to limit losses by restricting access and hours of supply. In step 4, power supply is no longer governed by market forces and the link between payment and supply is severed, thus reducing customers’ incentives to pay. The equilibrium outcome is uneven and sporadic access that undermines growth.

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Uncertainty in the trajectories of the global energy and economic systems vexes the climate science community. While it is tempting to reduce uncertainty by searching for deterministic rules governing the link between energy consumption and economic output, this article discusses some of the problems that follow from such an approach. We argue that the theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that energy and economic systems are dynamic, and unlikely to be predictable via the application of simple rules. Encouraging more research seeking to reduce uncertainty in forecasting would likely be valuable, but any results should reflect the tentative and exploratory nature of the subject matter.

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